Data assimilation in dynamical cognitive science.

Dynamical models make specific assumptions about cognitive processes that generate human behavior. In data assimilation, these models are tested against time-ordered data. Recent progress on Bayesian data assimilation demonstrates that this approach combines the strengths of statistical modeling of individual differences with the those of dynamical cognitive models.

A Bayesian approach to dynamical modeling of eye-movement control in reading of normal, mirrored, and scrambled texts.

In eye-movement control during reading, advanced process-oriented models have been developed to reproduce behavioral data. So far, model complexity and large numbers of model parameters prevented rigorous statistical inference and modeling of interindividual differences. Here we propose a Bayesian approach to both problems for one representative computational model of sentence reading (SWIFT; Engbert et al.

Sequential Data Assimilation of the Stochastic SEIR Epidemic Model for Regional COVID-19 Dynamics.

Newly emerging pandemics like COVID-19 call for predictive models to implement precisely tuned responses to limit their deep impact on society. Standard epidemic models provide a theoretically well-founded dynamical description of disease incidence. For COVID-19 with infectiousness peaking before and at symptom onset, the SEIR model explains the hidden build-up of exposed individuals which creates challenges for containment strategies.

Modulation of additive and interactive effects by trial history revisited.

Masson and Kliegl (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 39, 898-914, 2013) reported evidence that the nature of the target stimulus on the previous trial of a lexical decision task modulates the effects of independent variables on the current trial, including additive versus interactive effects of word frequency and stimulus quality. In contrast, recent reanalyses of previously published data from experiments that, unlike the Masson and Kliegl experiments, did not include semantic priming as a factor, found no evidence for modulation of additive effects of frequency and stimulus quality by trial history (Balota, Aschenbrenner, & Yap, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 39, 1563-1571, 2013; O'Malley & Besner, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 34, 1400-1411, 2013). We report two experiments that included semantic priming as a factor and that attempted to replicate the modulatory effects found by Masson and Kliegl.