Determining the impact of modeling additional sources of uncertainty in value-of-information analysis.

Background: The conditional reimbursement policy for expensive medicines in The Netherlands requires data collection on actual use and cost-effectiveness after the initial decision to reimburse a drug. This introduces new sources of uncertainty (less important in a randomized controlled trial than in daily practice), which may affect priorities for further research.

Objectives: This article focuses on determining the impact of including these uncertainties at the time a decision is made, and whether more complex models are always needed to address prioritization of additional research.