Concepts and methods for predicting viral evolution.

The seasonal human influenza virus undergoes rapid evolution, leading to significant changes in circulating viral strains from year to year. These changes are typically driven by adaptive mutations, particularly in the antigenic epitopes, the regions of the viral surface protein haemagglutinin targeted by human antibodies. Here we describe a consistent set of methods for data-driven predictive analysis of viral evolution.

Concepts and methods for predicting viral evolution.

The seasonal human influenza virus undergoes rapid evolution, leading to significant changes in circulating viral strains from year to year. These changes are typically driven by adaptive mutations, particularly in the antigenic epitopes, the regions of the viral surface protein haemagglutinin targeted by human antibodies. Here we describe a consistent set of methods for data-driven predictive analysis of viral evolution.

Population immunity predicts evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2.

The large-scale evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been marked by rapid turnover of genetic clades. New variants show intrinsic changes, notably increased transmissibility, and antigenic changes that reduce cross-immunity induced by previous infections or vaccinations. How this functional variation shapes global evolution has remained unclear.

Predicting in vivo escape dynamics of HIV-1 from a broadly neutralizing antibody.

Broadly neutralizing antibodies are promising candidates for treatment and prevention of HIV-1 infections. Such antibodies can temporarily suppress viral load in infected individuals; however, the virus often rebounds by escape mutants that have evolved resistance. In this paper, we map a fitness model of HIV-1 interacting with broadly neutralizing antibodies using in vivo data from a recent clinical trial.

Behavior of information flow near criticality.

Recent experiments have indicated that many biological systems self-organize near their critical point, which hints at a common design principle. While it has been suggested that information transmission is optimized near the critical point, it remains unclear how information transmission depends on the dynamics of the input signal, the distance over which the information needs to be transmitted, and the distance to the critical point. Here we employ stochastic simulations of a driven two-dimensional Ising system and study the instantaneous mutual information and the information transmission rate between a driven input spin and an output spin.