A Predictive Model for Identification of Children at Risk of Subsequent High-Frequency Utilization of the Emergency Department for Asthma.

Background: Asthma is the most common chronic condition among children with high-frequency emergency department (ED) utilization. Previous research has shown in outpatients seen for asthma that acute care visits predict subsequent health care utilization. Among ED patients, however, the optimal method of predicting subsequent ED utilization remains to be described.

Predicting Subsequent High-Frequency, Low-Acuity Utilization of the Pediatric Emergency Department.

Objective: To derive and test a predictive model for high-frequency (4 or more visits per year), low-acuity (emergency severity index 4 or 5) utilization of the pediatric emergency department.

Methods: The study sample used 3 years of data (2012-2014) from a single tertiary-care children's hospital for patients <21 years of age. Utilization in 2013 defined the index visit; prior utilization was drawn from 2012; and 2014 was used for outcome measurement.