Long-term multi-species demographic studies reveal divergent negative impacts of winter storms on seabird survival.

Understanding storm impacts on marine vertebrate demography requires detailed meteorological data in tandem with long-term population monitoring. Yet most studies use storm proxies such as the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), potentially obfuscating a mechanistic understanding of current and future risk. Here, we investigate the impact of extratropical cyclones by extracting north Atlantic winter storm characteristics (storm number, intensity, clustering and wave conditions) and relating these with long-term overwinter adult survival of three long-lived sympatric seabirds which winter at sea-common guillemot Uria aalge, Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica and razorbill Alca torda.

Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe.

European windstorms cause socioeconomic losses due to wind damage. Projections of future losses from such storms are subject to uncertainties from the frequency and tracks of the storms, their intensities and definitions thereof, and socio-economic scenarios. We use two storm severity indices applied to objectively identified extratropical cyclone footprints from a multi-model ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models under different future socio-economic scenarios.