A pair formation model with recovery: Application to mpox.

The current global outbreaks of mpox is a unique infectious disease in the way it seems to be transmitting: it has been observed to be highly concentrated in communities of men who have sex with men (MSM) through pair formation, and also provides long lasting immunity. This framework of mostly close, prolonged contact spreading a disease that admits immunity after infection is unlike similar infections which either offer little to no immunity post-infection or are lifelong infections. This creates the need for a new model framework that incorporates pair formation structure with recovery.

COVID-19 Vaccination and Healthcare Demand.

One of the driving concerns during any epidemic is the strain on the healthcare system. As we have seen many times over the globe with the COVID-19 pandemic, hospitals and ICUs can quickly become overwhelmed by cases. While strict periods of public health mitigation have certainly helped decrease incidence and thus healthcare demand, vaccination is the only clear long-term solution.

Multiple cohort study of hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 in-host infection dynamics: Parameter estimates, identifiability, sensitivity and the eclipse phase profile.

Within-host SARS-CoV-2 modelling studies have been published throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. These studies contain highly variable numbers of individuals and capture varying timescales of pathogen dynamics; some studies capture the time of disease onset, the peak viral load and subsequent heterogeneity in clearance dynamics across individuals, while others capture late-time post-peak dynamics. In this study, we curate multiple previously published SARS-CoV-2 viral load data sets, fit these data with a consistent modelling approach, and estimate the variability of in-host parameters including the basic reproduction number, R, as well as the best-fit eclipse phase profile.

A Multi-Scale Model of Disease Transfer in Honey Bee Colonies.

Inter-colony disease transfer poses a serious hurdle to successfully managing healthy honeybee colonies. In this study, we build a multi-scale model of two interacting honey bee colonies. The model considers the effects of forager and drone drift, guarding behaviour, and resource robbing of dying colonies on the spread of disease between colonies.

Integrated vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions based strategies in Ontario, Canada, as a case study: a mathematical modelling study.

Recently, two coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine products have been authorized in Canada. It is of crucial importance to model an integrated/combined package of non-pharmaceutical (physical/social distancing) and pharmaceutical (immunization) public health control measures. A modified epidemiological, compartmental SIR model was used and fit to the cumulative COVID-19 case data for the province of Ontario, Canada, from 8 September 2020 to 8 December 2020.

A simple model for fitting mild, severe, and known cases during an epidemic with an application to the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

One of the major difficulties with modelling an ongoing epidemic is that often data is limited or incomplete, making it hard to estimate key epidemic parameters and outcomes (e.g. attack rate, peak time, reporting rate, reproduction number).

The effects of diploid male production on honey bee colony evolution and survival.

The order Hymenoptera includes most of the eusocial species on the planet. Correlated is the fact that many of the social species within the order are haplodiploid and use complementary sex determination (CSD) to determine the sex of offspring. CSD is the mechanism by why single sex alleles within an organism result in male development (haploid) and mismatched sex alleles develop into females (diploids).

Evolutionary stability of the lysis-lysogeny decision: Why be virulent?

Lytic viruses infect and kill host cells, producing a large number of viral copies. Temperate viruses, in contrast, are able to integrate viral genetic material into the host cell DNA, leaving a viable host cell. The evolutionary advantage of this strategy, lysogeny, has been demonstrated in complex environments that include spatial structure, oscillating population dynamics, or periodic environmental collapse.

Bee++: An Object-Oriented, Agent-Based Simulator for Honey Bee Colonies.

We present a model and associated simulation package (www.beeplusplus.ca) to capture the natural dynamics of a honey bee colony in a spatially-explicit landscape, with temporally-variable, weather-dependent parameters.