Seasonal and annual fluctuations of deer populations estimated by a Bayesian state-space model.

Deer overabundance is a contributing factor in the degradation of plant communities and ecosystems worldwide. The management and conservation of the deer-affected ecosystems requires us to urgently grasp deer population trends and to identify the factors that affect them. In this study, we developed a Bayesian state-space model to estimate the population dynamics of sika deer (Cervus nippon) in a cool-temperate forest in Japan, where wolves (Canis lupus hodophilax) are extinct.