Model fitting data from syllogistic reasoning experiments.

The data presented in this article are related to the research article entitled "Probabilistic representation in syllogistic reasoning: A theory to integrate mental models and heuristics" (M. Hattori, 2016) [1]. This article presents predicted data by three signature probabilistic models of syllogistic reasoning and model fitting results for each of a total of 12 experiments (=404) in the literature.

Probabilistic representation in syllogistic reasoning: A theory to integrate mental models and heuristics.

This paper presents a new theory of syllogistic reasoning. The proposed model assumes there are probabilistic representations of given signature situations. Instead of conducting an exhaustive search, the model constructs an individual-based "logical" mental representation that expresses the most probable state of affairs, and derives a necessary conclusion that is not inconsistent with the model using heuristics based on informativeness.

Effects of subliminal hints on insight problem solving.

Two experiments tested a total of 509 participants on insight problems (the radiation problem and the nine-dot problem). Half of the participants were first exposed to a 1-min movie that included a subliminal hint. The hint raised the solution rate of people who did not recognize it.

Why does the base rate appear to be ignored? The equiprobability hypothesis.

The base rate fallacy has been considered to result from people's tendency to ignore the base rates given in tasks. In the present article, we note a particular, common structure of the tasks (the imbalanced probability structure) in which the fallacy is often observed. The equiprobability hypothesis explains the mechanism that produces the fallacy.

Adaptive non-interventional heuristics for covariation detection in causal induction: model comparison and rational analysis.

In this article, 41 models of covariation detection from 2 × 2 contingency tables were evaluated against past data in the literature and against data from new experiments. A new model was also included based on a limiting case of the normative phi-coefficient under an extreme rarity assumption, which has been shown to be an important factor in covariation detection (McKenzie & Mikkelsen, 2007) and data selection (Hattori, 2002; Oaksford & Chater, 1994, 2003). The results were supportive of the new model.

[The relationship between idea search space and creativity].

This study investigated the relationship between participants' evaluation of creativiy and characteristics of creative products towards a clear and objective definition of the concept of creativity. Three experiments examined whether the size of "idea search space" in the creative process predicts the score of products in creativity assessments. In Experiment 1, in order to construct an multidimensional scaling (MDS) space which was supposed to correspond to creators' "idea space," 20 participants exhaustively evaluated the strength of semantic connection between every pair of 50 (physical) parts of possible creatures.

A quantitative model of optimal data selection in Wason's selection task.

The optimal data selection model proposed by Oaksford and Chater (1994) successfully formalized Wason's selection task (Wason, 1966). The model, however, involved some questionable assumptions and was also not sufficient as a model of the task because it could not provide quantitative predictions of the card selection frequencies. In this paper, the model was revised to provide quantitative fits to the data.