Modelling the field personnel resources to control foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in New Zealand.

The objective of the study was to simulate New Zealand's foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) operational plan to determine personnel requirements for an FMD response and understand how the numbers of front-line staff available could affect the size and duration of FMD outbreaks, when using stamping-out (SO) measures with or without vaccination. The model utilized a national dataset of all known livestock farms. Each simulation randomly seeded infection into a single farm.

Use of scenario tree modelling to plan freedom from infection surveillance: Mycoplasma bovis in New Zealand.

Since mid-2018, the New Zealand (NZ) Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) has been operating an eradication program for an incursion of Mycoplasma bovis. Although NZ is still delimiting the outbreak, consideration is being given to how freedom from M. bovis will be demonstrated.

Detection of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in the Absence of Clinical Disease in Cattle and Buffalo in South East Asia.

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is widespread throughout much of the world, including parts of South East Asia. Surveillance is often limited in endemic areas, relying predominantly on passive outbreak reporting. As part of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE)'s South East Asia and China Foot-and-Mouth Disease Project (SEACFMD), field sampling was performed to help understand evidence of widespread virus exposure observed in previous studies.

Mycoplasma bovis outbreak in New Zealand cattle: An assessment of transmission trends using surveillance data.

Mycoplasma bovis most likely infected New Zealand cattle in the latter half of 2015. Infection was detected in mid-2017 after which control activities were implemented. An official eradication programme commenced in mid-2018, which is ongoing.

Real-Time Standard Analysis of Disease Investigation (SADI)-A Toolbox Approach to Inform Disease Outbreak Response.

An incursion of an important exotic transboundary animal disease requires a prompt and intensive response. The routine analysis of up-to-date data, as near to real time as possible, is essential for the objective assessment of the patterns of disease spread or effectiveness of control measures and the formulation of alternative control strategies. In this paper, we describe the Standard Analysis of Disease Investigation (SADI), a toolbox for informing disease outbreak response, which was developed as part of New Zealand's biosecurity preparedness.

Challenges and opportunities for using national animal datasets to support foot-and-mouth disease control.

National level databases of animal numbers, locations and movements provide the essential foundations for disease preparedness, outbreak investigations and control activities. These activities are particularly important for managing and mitigating the risks of high-impact transboundary animal disease outbreaks such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), which can significantly affect international trade access and domestic food security. In countries where livestock production systems are heavily subsidized by the government, producers are often required to provide detailed animal movement and demographic data as a condition of business.

Informing adaptive management strategies: Evaluating a mechanism to predict the likely qualitative size of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in New Zealand using data available in the early response phase of simulated outbreaks.

The objective of the study was to define and then evaluate an early decision indicator (EDI) trigger that operated within the first 5 weeks of a response that would indicate a large and/or long outbreak of FMD was developing, to be able to inform control options within an adaptive management framework. To define the EDI trigger, a previous dataset of 10,000 simulated FMD outbreaks in New Zealand, controlled by the standard stamping-out approach, was re-analysed at various time points between Days 11 and 35 of each response to find threshold values of cumulative detected infected premises (IPs) that indicated upper quartile sized outbreaks and estimated dissemination rate (EDR) values that indicated sustained spread. Both sets of thresholds were then parameterized within the InterSpread Plus modelling framework, such that if either the cumulative IPs or the EDR exceeded the defined thresholds, the EDI trigger would fire.

Efficacy of citric acid and sodium hypochlorite as disinfectants against Mycoplasma bovis.

Mycoplasma bovis, a cattle pathogen of major economic importance across the globe, causes a range of diseases, including pneumonia and mastitis. Because of the limited options for effective treatment of these diseases, prevention and control are preferred to diagnosis and treatment. In this study, the efficacies of citric acid and sodium hypochlorite as disinfectants against M.

Estimating foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) prevalence in central Myanmar: Comparison of village headman and farmer disease reports with serological findings.

The impacts of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) on food security in developing countries are difficult to quantify due to the scarcity of accurate data on the prevalence and incidence of affected villages. This is partly due to resource constraints as well as the logistical challenges of conducting regular diagnostic testing in remote locations. In this study, we used descriptive analysis and latent class analysis (LCA) models to analyse data collected during a field survey of 160 villages in central Myanmar in the Mandalay and Sagaing Regions over the 2012-2016 time period.

Evaluating the utility of national-scale data to estimate the local risk of foot-and-mouth disease in endemic regions.

Knowledge of the distribution of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is required if control programmes are to be successful. However, data on the seroprevalence and incidence of affected villages in developing countries with endemic disease are scarce. This is partly due to resource constraints as well as the logistical challenges of conducting intensive surveys and diagnostic testing in remote locations.

Species distribution models: A comparison of statistical approaches for livestock and disease epidemics.

In livestock industries, reliable up-to-date spatial distribution and abundance records for animals and farms are critical for governments to manage and respond to risks. Yet few, if any, countries can afford to maintain comprehensive, up-to-date agricultural census data. Statistical modelling can be used as a proxy for such data but comparative modelling studies have rarely been undertaken for livestock populations.

Network analysis of translocated Takahe populations to identify disease surveillance targets.

Social network analysis is being increasingly used in epidemiology and disease modeling in humans, domestic animals, and wildlife. We investigated this tool in describing a translocation network (area that allows movement of animals between geographically isolated locations) used for the conservation of an endangered flightless rail, the Takahe (Porphyrio hochstetteri). We collated records of Takahe translocations within New Zealand and used social network principles to describe the connectivity of the translocation network.