Influenza Vaccination, Household Composition, and Race-Based Differences in Influenza Incidence: An Agent-Based Modeling Study.

To estimate the effect of influenza vaccination disparities. We compared symptomatic influenza cases between Black and White races in 2 scenarios: (1) race- and age-specific vaccination coverage and (2) equal vaccination coverage. We also compared differences in household composition between races.

Modeling the Impact of COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies in Pennsylvania, USA.

Unlabelled: To estimate the impact on mortality of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented early in the COVID-19 pandemic. We implemented an agent-based modified SEIR model of COVID-19, calibrated to match death numbers reported in Pennsylvania from January 2020 to April 2021 and including representations of NPIs implemented in Pennsylvania. To investigate the impact of these strategies, we ran the calibrated model with no interventions and with varying combinations, timings, and levels of interventions.

The Impact of the Good Behavior Game on Risk for Drug Use Disorder in an Agent-Based Model of Southern Sweden.

Objective: Drug use disorder (DUD) is a worldwide problem, and strategies to reduce its incidence are central to decreasing its burden. This investigation seeks to provide a proof of concept for the ability of agent-based modeling to predict the impact of the introduction of an effective school-based intervention, the Good Behavior Game (GBG), on reducing DUD in Scania, Sweden, primarily through increasing school achievement.

Method: We modified an existing agent-based simulation model of opioid use disorder to represent DUD in Scania County, southern Sweden.

Agent-based model of the impact of higher influenza vaccine efficacy on seasonal influenza burden.

Introduction: Current influenza vaccines have limited effectiveness. COVID-19 vaccines using mRNA technology have demonstrated very high efficacy, suggesting that mRNA vaccines could be more effective for influenza. Several such influenza vaccines are in development.

Can a Two-Dose Influenza Vaccine Regimen Better Protect Older Adults? An Agent-Based Modeling Study.

Older adults (age ≥ 65) are at high risk of influenza morbidity and mortality. This study evaluated the impact of a hypothetical two-dose influenza vaccine regimen per season to reduce symptomatic flu cases by providing preseason (first dose) and mid-season (second dose) protection to offset waning vaccine effectiveness (VE). The Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics (FRED), an agent-based modeling platform, was used to compare typical one-dose vaccination to a two-dose vaccination strategy.

Impact of Low Rates of Influenza on Next-Season Influenza Infections.

Introduction: Interventions to curb the spread of COVID-19 during the 2020-2021 influenza season essentially eliminated influenza during that season. Given waning antibody titers over time, future residual population immunity against influenza will be reduced. The implication for the subsequent 2021-2022 influenza season is unknown.

Estimating the Impact of Low Influenza Activity in 2020 on Population Immunity and Future Influenza Seasons in the United States.

Background: Influenza activity in the 2020-2021 season was remarkably low, likely due to implementation of public health preventive measures such as social distancing, mask wearing, and school closure. With waning immunity, the impact of low influenza activity in the 2020-2021 season on the following season is unknown.

Methods: We built a multistrain compartmental model that captures immunity over multiple influenza seasons in the United States.

Correction: Multilocus Sequence Typing as a Replacement for Serotyping in Salmonella enterica.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.

Development of a Synthetic Population Model for Assessing Excess Risk for Cardiovascular Disease Death.

Importance: Evaluating the association of social determinants of health with chronic diseases at the population level requires access to individual-level factors associated with disease, which are rarely available for large populations. Synthetic populations are a possible alternative for this purpose.

Objective: To construct and validate a synthetic population that statistically mimics the characteristics and spatial disease distribution of a real population, using real and synthetic data.

Detecting critical slowing down in high-dimensional epidemiological systems.

Despite medical advances, the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases continue to pose a public health threat. Low-dimensional epidemiological models predict that epidemic transitions are preceded by the phenomenon of critical slowing down (CSD). This has raised the possibility of anticipating disease (re-)emergence using CSD-based early-warning signals (EWS), which are statistical moments estimated from time series data.

Integrating Social Dynamics Into Modeling Cigarette and E-Cigarette Use.

. The use of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarette) offers potential to facilitate cigarette smoking cessation, yet potentially increases risk of cigarette smoking initiation. This relationship has been primarily modeled in mathematical ways that often do not represent real-world complexities, which could inform decisions regarding local prevention programs or policies.

Forecasted Size of Measles Outbreaks Associated With Vaccination Exemptions for Schoolchildren.

Importance: Vaccine exemptions, which allow unvaccinated children to attend school, have increased by a factor of 28 since 2003 in Texas. Geographic clustering of unvaccinated children facilitates the spread of measles introductions, but the potential size of outbreaks is unclear.

Objective: To forecast the range of measles outbreak sizes in each metropolitan area of Texas at 2018 and future reduced school vaccination rates.

Genomic Investigation Reveals Highly Conserved, Mosaic, Recombination Events Associated with Capsular Switching among Invasive Neisseria meningitidis Serogroup W Sequence Type (ST)-11 Strains.

Neisseria meningitidis is an important cause of meningococcal disease globally. Sequence type (ST)-11 clonal complex (cc11) is a hypervirulent meningococcal lineage historically associated with serogroup C capsule and is believed to have acquired the W capsule through a C to W capsular switching event. We studied the sequence of capsule gene cluster (cps) and adjoining genomic regions of 524 invasive W cc11 strains isolated globally.

Genomic Epidemiology of an Endoscope-Associated Outbreak of Klebsiella pneumoniae Carbapenemase (KPC)-Producing K. pneumoniae.

Increased incidence of infections due to Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC)-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae (KPC-Kp) was noted among patients undergoing endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) at a single hospital. An epidemiologic investigation identified KPC-Kp and non-KPC-producing, extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Kp in cultures from 2 endoscopes. Genotyping was performed on patient and endoscope isolates to characterize the microbial genomics of the outbreak.

Genomic Epidemiology of Hypervirulent Serogroup W, ST-11 Neisseria meningitidis.

Neisseria meningitidis is a leading bacterial cause of sepsis and meningitis globally with dynamic strain distribution over time. Beginning with an epidemic among Hajj pilgrims in 2000, serogroup W (W) sequence type (ST) 11 emerged as a leading cause of epidemic meningitis in the African 'meningitis belt' and endemic cases in South America, Europe, Middle East and China. Previous genotyping studies were unable to reliably discriminate sporadic W ST-11 strains in circulation since 1970 from the Hajj outbreak strain (Hajj clone).

Three outbreak-causing Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C clones, Brazil(1.).

During 2003-2012, 8 clusters of meningococcal disease were identified in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, all caused by serogroup C Neisseria meningitidis. The isolates were assigned to 3 clonal complexes (cc): cc11, cc32, and cc103. These hyperinvasive disease lineages were associated with endemic disease, outbreaks, and high case-fatality rates.

Capsular switching in invasive Neisseria meningitidis, Brazil(1).

During the 1990s, an epidemic of B:4 Neisseria meningitidis infections affected Brazil. Subsequent increase in C:4 disease suggested B → C capsular switching. This study identified B → C switches within the sequence type 32 complex.

Multilocus sequence typing as a replacement for serotyping in Salmonella enterica.

Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica is traditionally subdivided into serovars by serological and nutritional characteristics. We used Multilocus Sequence Typing (MLST) to assign 4,257 isolates from 554 serovars to 1092 sequence types (STs). The majority of the isolates and many STs were grouped into 138 genetically closely related clusters called eBurstGroups (eBGs).

Whole genome sequencing to investigate the emergence of clonal complex 23 Neisseria meningitidis serogroup Y disease in the United States.

In the United States, serogroup Y, ST-23 clonal complex Neisseria meningitidis was responsible for an increase in meningococcal disease incidence during the 1990s. This increase was accompanied by antigenic shift of three outer membrane proteins, with a decrease in the population that predominated in the early 1990s as a different population emerged later in that decade. To understand factors that may have been responsible for the emergence of serogroup Y disease, we used whole genome pyrosequencing to investigate genetic differences between isolates from early and late N.

Integron-mediated multidrug resistance in a global collection of nontyphoidal Salmonella enterica isolates.

Salmonella enterica bacteria have become increasingly resistant to antimicrobial agents, partly as a result of genes carried on integrons. Clonal expansion and horizontal gene transfer may contribute to the spread of antimicrobial drug-resistance integrons in these organisms. We investigated this resistance and integron carriage among 90 isolates with the ACSSuT phenotype (resistance to ampicillin, chloramphenicol, streptomycin, sulfamethoxazole, and tetracycline) in a global collection of S.