Disparity in population structuring of Southwestern Willow Flycatchers based on geographic distance, movement patterns, and genetic analyses.

Estimates of population connectivity often are based on demographic analysis of movements among subpopulations, but this approach may fail to detect rare migrants or overestimate the contribution of movements into populations when migrants fail to successfully reproduce. We compared movement data of endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatchers among isolated populations in Nevada and Arizona from 1997 to 2008 to genetic analyses of samples collected between 2004 and 2008 to determine the degree to which these two methods were concordant in their estimates of population structuring. Given that documented movements of 13 color-banded adults and 23 juveniles over 10 years indicated low rates of long-distance movements, we predicted that genetic analyses would show significant population structuring between a northern (Nevada) deme and a southern (Arizona) deme.