Publications by authors named "Martyn Chipperfield"

Article Synopsis
  • Siberian wildfires significantly influence the carbon cycle and Arctic ecosystems, with precipitation trends affecting fire activity over the past decades.
  • The study from 1982 to 2021 found a strong connection between summer precipitation in West Siberia and ozone levels in the upper atmosphere, which warms it and alters the polar jet stream's behavior.
  • Increases in UTLS ozone correlated with rising summer precipitation, while its decline since 2010 could lead to reduced rainfall and elevated wildfire risk in the region.
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The Arctic has experienced several extreme springtime stratospheric ozone depletion events over the past four decades, particularly in 1997, 2011 and 2020. However, the impact of this stratospheric ozone depletion on the climate system remains poorly understood. Here we show that the stratospheric ozone depletion causes significant reductions in the sea ice concentration (SIC) and the sea ice thickness (SIT) over the Kara Sea, Laptev Sea and East Siberian Sea from spring to summer.

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The Montreal Protocol is successfully protecting the ozone layer. The main halogen gases responsible for stratospheric ozone depletion have been regulated under the Protocol, their combined atmospheric abundances are declining and ozone is increasing in some parts of the atmosphere. Ozone depletion potentials, relative measures of compounds' abilities to deplete stratospheric ozone, have been a key regulatory component of the Protocol in successfully guiding the phasing out in the manufacture of the most highly depleting substances.

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Article Synopsis
  • The atmospheric levels of CFC-11, a harmful ozone-depleting substance, have been decreasing since the Montreal Protocol, but there was a worrying slowdown in this decline due to unexpected emissions starting in 2013.
  • Recent data shows a significant drop in global CFC-11 emissions from 2018 to 2019, indicating a reduction in unreported production.
  • If this trend of decreasing emissions continues, it could limit future ozone depletion despite a growing reserve of un-emitted CFC-11.
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Nitrous oxide (NO), like carbon dioxide, is a long-lived greenhouse gas that accumulates in the atmosphere. Over the past 150 years, increasing atmospheric NO concentrations have contributed to stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change, with the current rate of increase estimated at 2 per cent per decade. Existing national inventories do not provide a full picture of NO emissions, owing to their omission of natural sources and limitations in methodology for attributing anthropogenic sources.

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We have derived values of the Ultraviolet Index (UVI) at solar noon using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet Model (TUV) driven by ozone, temperature and aerosol fields from climate simulations of the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). Since clouds remain one of the largest uncertainties in climate projections, we simulated only the clear-sky UVI. We compared the modelled UVI climatologies against present-day climatological values of UVI derived from both satellite data (the OMI-Aura OMUVBd product) and ground-based measurements (from the NDACC network).

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Article Synopsis
  • Very short-lived substances (VSLS), such as dichloromethane and chloroform, are significant sources of chlorine in the stratosphere, contributing to ozone depletion.
  • The estimated stratospheric chlorine levels from VSLS rose from 69 ppt in 2000 to 111 ppt in 2017, primarily due to source gas injection.
  • The contribution of VSLS to total stratospheric chlorine has increased from ~2% to ~3.4% during the same period, indicating their growing role as other long-lived chlorinated compounds decline.
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The outstanding tropical land climate characteristic over the past decades is rapid warming, with no significant large-scale precipitation trends. This warming is expected to continue but the effects on tropical vegetation are unknown. El Niño-related heat peaks may provide a test bed for a future hotter world.

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Simulated stratospheric temperatures over the period 1979-2016 in models from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) are compared with recently updated and extended satellite observations. The multi-model mean global temperature trends over 1979- 2005 are -0.88 ± 0.

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Article Synopsis
  • The Montreal Protocol has effectively reduced emissions of substances that harm the ozone layer, leading to an expected recovery of stratospheric ozone levels in this century.
  • There is significant uncertainty regarding how quickly ozone levels will recover, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, where a dipole pattern of ozone anomalies has been identified between Eurasia (decreasing ozone) and North America (increasing ozone).
  • Ozone recovery in late winter may depend not only on the decrease of harmful substances but also on shifts in the polar vortex, potentially causing delays in recovery across certain regions of the Northern Hemisphere.
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An accurate estimate of global hydroxyl radical (OH) abundance is important for projections of air quality, climate, and stratospheric ozone recovery. As the atmospheric mixing ratios of methyl chloroform (CHCCl) (MCF), the commonly used OH reference gas, approaches zero, it is important to find alternative approaches to infer atmospheric OH abundance and variability. The lack of global bottom-up emission inventories is the primary obstacle in choosing a MCF alternative.

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As a result of the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its amendments, the atmospheric loading of anthropogenic ozone-depleting substances is decreasing. Accordingly, the stratospheric ozone layer is expected to recover. However, short data records and atmospheric variability confound the search for early signs of recovery, and climate change is masking ozone recovery from ozone-depleting substances in some regions and will increasingly affect the extent of recovery.

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It is well established that anthropogenic chlorine-containing chemicals contribute to ozone layer depletion. The successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol has led to reductions in the atmospheric concentration of many ozone-depleting gases, such as chlorofluorocarbons. As a consequence, stratospheric chlorine levels are declining and ozone is projected to return to levels observed pre-1980 later this century.

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Over the last two decades it has emerged that measured hydroxyl radical levels in the upper troposphere are often underestimated by models, leading to the assertion that there are missing sources. Here we report laboratory studies of the kinetics and products of the reaction between CH3O2 and BrO radicals that shows that this could be an important new source of hydroxyl radicals:BrO + CH3O2 → products (1). The temperature dependent value in Arrhenius form of k(T) is k1 = (2.

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