Association between 24-hour movement behaviors and adiposity in children and adolescents: A compositional data meta-analysis.

Purpose: To quantitatively synthesize published evidence on the association between 24-hour movement behavior composition with adiposity in children and adolescents aged 3-18 years.

Methods: Systematic literature searches were conducted in five electronic databases to identify papers published between January 2015 and January 2024. A machine learning-assisted systematic review was conducted to identify studies applying compositional data analysis to examine the association between 24-hour movement behaviors and adiposity in children and youth.

Estimating the burden of underdiagnosis within England: A modelling study of linked primary care data.

Introduction: Undiagnosed chronic disease has serious health consequences, and variation in rates of underdiagnosis between populations can contribute to health inequalities. We aimed to estimate the level of undiagnosed disease of 11 common conditions and its variation across sociodemographic characteristics and regions in England.

Methods: We used linked primary care, hospital and mortality data on approximately 1.

Impact of a community-based primary healthcare programme on childhood diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DPT3) immunisation coverage in rural northern Ghana.

Background: Child healthcare services such as diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DPT3) vaccination are known to reduce childhood mortality and morbidity. However, inequalities in access to these services in developing countries continue to constrain global efforts aimed at improving child health. This study examines the impact and equity effect of a community-based primary healthcare programme known as the Ghana Essential Health Intervention Programme (GEHIP) on improving the uptake of childhood DPT3 immunisation coverage in a remote rural region of Ghana.

Predicting the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Brazil: a modeling study.

Aims: We adopted a modeling approach to predict the likely future prevalence of type 2 diabetes, taking into account demographic changes and trends in obesity and smoking in Brazil. We then used the model to estimate the likely future impact of different policy scenarios, such as policies to reduce obesity.

Methods: The IMPACT TYPE 2 DIABETES model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity, and smoking trends to estimate future type 2 diabetes prevalence.

Calibration plots for multistate risk predictions models.

Introduction: There is currently no guidance on how to assess the calibration of multistate models used for risk prediction. We introduce several techniques that can be used to produce calibration plots for the transition probabilities of a multistate model, before assessing their performance in the presence of random and independent censoring through a simulation.

Methods: We studied pseudo-values based on the Aalen-Johansen estimator, binary logistic regression with inverse probability of censoring weights (BLR-IPCW), and multinomial logistic regression with inverse probability of censoring weights (MLR-IPCW).

Socioeconomic inequalities in accumulation of multimorbidity in England from 2019 to 2049: a microsimulation projection study.

Background: There are socioeconomic inequalities in the prevalence of multimorbidity and its accumulation across the life course. Estimates of multimorbidity prevalence in English primary care increased by more than two-thirds from 2004 to 2019. We developed a microsimulation model to quantify current and projected multimorbidity inequalities in the English adult population.

Effect of calorie labelling in the out-of-home food sector on adult obesity prevalence, cardiovascular mortality, and social inequalities in England: a modelling study.

Background: England implemented a menu calorie labelling policy in large, out-of-home food businesses in 2022. We aimed to model the likely policy impact on population-level obesity and cardiovascular disease mortality, as well as the socioeconomic equity of estimated effects, in the adult population in England.

Methods: For this modelling analysis, we built a comparative assessment model using two scenarios: the current implementation scenario refers to actual deployment only in large (≥250 employees), out-of-home food businesses, whereas the full implementation scenario refers to deployment in every out-of-home food business.

The Cost of Atrial Fibrillation: A Systematic Review.

Objectives: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia, with an increasing incidence and prevalence because of progressively aging populations. Costs related to AF are both direct and indirect. This systematic review aims to identify the main cost drivers of the illness, assess the potential economic impact resulting from changes in care strategies, and propose interventions where they are most needed.

US County-Level Variation in Preterm Birth Rates, 2007-2019.

Importance: Preterm birth is a leading cause of preventable neonatal morbidity and mortality. Preterm birth rates at the national level may mask important geographic variation in rates and trends at the county level.

Objective: To estimate age-standardized preterm birth rates by US county from 2007 to 2019.

Projected health and economic impacts of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation in Germany: A cross-validation modelling study.

Background: Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have been implemented globally to reduce the burden of cardiometabolic diseases by disincentivizing consumption through increased prices (e.g., 1 peso/litre tax in Mexico) or incentivizing industry reformulation to reduce SSB sugar content (e.

Effect of a community-based primary healthcare programme on adverse pregnancy outcomes in Northern Ghana.

Background: Pregnancy complications and adverse birth outcomes are among the major contributors to poor maternal and child health. Mothers in remote communities are at higher risk of adverse birth outcomes due to constraints in access to healthcare services. In Ghana, a community-based primary healthcare programme called the Ghana Essential Health Interventions Programme (GEHIP) was implemented in a rural region to help strengthen primary healthcare delivery and improve maternal and child healthcare services delivery.

Quantifying the mental health and economic impacts of prospective Universal Basic Income schemes among young people in the UK: a microsimulation modelling study.

Objective: Universal Basic Income (UBI)-a largely unconditional, regular payment to all adults to support basic needs-has been proposed as a policy to increase the size and security of household incomes and promote mental health. We aimed to quantify its long-term impact on mental health among young people in England.

Methods: We produced a discrete-time dynamic stochastic microsimulation that models a close-to-reality open cohort of synthetic individuals (2010-2030) based on data from Office for National Statistics and Understanding Society.

Forecasting the mortality burden of coronary heart disease and stroke in Germany: National trends and regional inequalities.

Background: The decline of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has slowed in many countries, including Germany. We examined the implications of this trend for future coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality in Germany considering persistent mortality inequalities between former East and West Germany.

Methods: We retrieved demographic and mortality data from 1991 to 2019 from the German Federal Statistical Office.

Does Anyone Suffer From Teenage Motherhood? Mental Health Effects of Teen Motherhood in Great Britain Are Small and Homogeneous.

Teen mothers experience disadvantage across a wide range of outcomes. However, previous research is equivocal with respect to possible long-term mental health consequences of teen motherhood and has not adequately considered the possibility that effects on mental health may be heterogeneous. Drawing on data from the 1970 British Birth Cohort Study, this article applies a novel statistical machine-learning approach-Bayesian Additive Regression Trees-to estimate the effects of teen motherhood on mental health outcomes at ages 30, 34, and 42.

Developing prediction models to estimate the risk of two survival outcomes both occurring: A comparison of techniques.

Introduction: This study considers the prediction of the time until two survival outcomes have both occurred. We compared a variety of analytical methods motivated by a typical clinical problem of multimorbidity prognosis.

Methods: We considered five methods: product (multiply marginal risks), dual-outcome (directly model the time until both events occur), multistate models (msm), and a range of copula and frailty models.

Association between gender social norms and cardiovascular disease mortality and life expectancy: an ecological study.

Objective: Examine the association between country-level gender social norms and (1) cardiovascular disease mortality rates; (2) female to male cardiovascular disease mortality ratios; and (3) life expectancy.

Design: Ecological study with the country as the unit of analysis.

Setting: Global, country-level data.

Guidance on the use of complex systems models for economic evaluations of public health interventions.

To help health economic modelers respond to demands for greater use of complex systems models in public health. To propose identifiable features of such models and support researchers to plan public health modeling projects using these models. A working group of experts in complex systems modeling and economic evaluation was brought together to develop and jointly write guidance for the use of complex systems models for health economic analysis.

Transition in social risk factors and adolescent motherhood in low- income and middle- income countries: Evidence from Demographic and Health Survey data, 1996-2018.

Understanding the dynamics of social risk factors in the occurrence of adolescent motherhood is vital in designing more appropriate prevention initiatives in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We aimed this study to examine the transition of social risk factors and their association with adolescent motherhood in LMICs since the initiation of the MDGs. We analysed 119967 adolescent girls (15-19 years) from 40-nationally representative Demographic Health Surveys in 20 LMICs that had at least two surveys: a survey in 1996-2003(baseline, near MDGs started) and another in 2014-2018(endline).

Equity in maternal healthcare utilisation in Ghana: Do community-based primary health care programmes matter?

Objective: Improving equity in the use of maternal health services in rural and remote communities is critical to meeting the Sustainable Development Goals targets on maternal and child health. This study examines the effect of a community-based primary healthcare strengthening programme on improving the utilisation of antenatal care (ANC4+), skilled delivery and health facility delivery.

Methods: Baseline and endline survey data of women of reproductive age for intervention and comparison districts were used to examine the equity impact of the Ghana Essential Health Interventions Programme (GEHIP) on antenatal care visits, skilled delivery and health facility delivery.

Projections of future coronary heart disease and stroke mortality in Japan until 2040: a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.

Background: We aimed to estimate the future burden of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortalities by sex and all 47 prefectures of Japan until 2040 while accounting for effects of age, period, and cohort and integrating them to be at the national level to account for regional differences among prefectures.

Methods: We estimated future CHD and stroke mortality projections, developing Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models in population and the number of CHD and stroke by age, sex, and all 47 prefectures observed from 1995 to 2019; then applying these to official future population estimates until 2040. The present participants were all men and women aged over 30 years and were residents of Japan.

Promotion of healthy nutrition in primary and secondary cardiovascular disease prevention: a clinical consensus statement from the European Association of Preventive Cardiology.

Background: Poor dietary habits are common and lead to significant morbidity and mortality. However, addressing and improving nutrition in various cardiovascular settings remain sub-optimal. This paper discusses practical approaches to how nutritional counselling and promotion could be undertaken in primary care, cardiac rehabilitation, sports medicine, paediatric cardiology, and public health.