Investigating the 'Bolsonaro effect' on the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic: An empirical analysis of observational data in Brazil.

Brazil counts among the countries the hardest hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. A great deal has been said about the negative role played by President Bolsonaro's denialism, but relatively few studies have attempted to measure precisely what impact it actually had on the pandemic. Our paper conducts econometric estimates based on observational data at municipal level to quantitatively assess the 'Bolsonaro effect' over time from March 2020 to December 2022.

in the Time of Covid-19 in Brazil: Socioeconomic Vulnerabilities, Transmission Factors and Public Policies.

Unlabelled: This paper aims at identifying the Covid-19 infection and mortality risk factors in Brazil during the pandemic's first wave. Three groups of variables are considered: socioeconomic and health vulnerabilities, factors related to the virus transmission channels (mobility and density) and the effects of the policy responses. The analysis at the level of all 5,570 municipalities, drawing on a matching of different statistical and administrative databases, returns three main results.