Actuarial risk assessment of sexual offenders: The psychometric properties of the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG).

The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) is one of the most commonly used actuarial risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders. The aims of the present field study were to examine the predictive validity of the German version of the SORAG and its individual items for different offender subgroups and recidivism criteria in sexual offenders released from the Austrian Prison System (N = 1,104; average follow-up period M = 6.48 years) within a prospective-longitudinal research design.

Grant T. Harris (1950-2014).

This obituary of Dr. Grant Harris describes his life and the outstanding contributions he made to the field of correctional and forensic psychology.

Progress in violence risk assessment and communication: hypothesis versus evidence.

We draw a distinction between hypothesis and evidence with respect to the assessment and communication of the risk of violent recidivism. We suggest that some authorities in the field have proposed quite valid and reasonable hypotheses with respect to several issues. Among these are the following: that accuracy will be improved by the adjustment or moderation of numerical scores based on clinical opinions about rare risk factors or other considerations pertaining to the applicability to the case at hand; that there is something fundamentally distinct about protective factors so that they are not merely the obverse of risk factors, such that optimal accuracy cannot be achieved without consideration of such protective factors; and that assessment of dynamic factors is required for optimal accuracy and furthermore interventions aimed at such dynamic factors can be expected to cause reductions in violence risk.

What does it mean when age is related to recidivism among sex offenders?

Age is a robust predictor of recidivism and an item on actuarial tools commonly used to predict sexual violent recidivism among sex offenders. However, little is known about whether or how much offenders' risk diminishes as a result of aging. In the first of two studies, we examined the sexual and violent recidivism of 533 sex offenders who were over age 50 on release.

Validation of and revision to the VRAG and SORAG: the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide-Revised (VRAG-R).

The violence risk appraisal guide (VRAG) was developed in the early 1990s, and approximately 60 replications around the world have shown its utility for the appraisal of violence risk among correctional and psychiatric populations. At the same time, authorities (e.g.

Bayes and base rates: what is an informative prior for actuarial violence risk assessment?

Bayes' theorem describes an axiomatic relationship among marginal and conditional proportions within a single "experiment." In many ways, it has been fruitful to greatly extend this idea to the task of drawing inferences from data much more generally. Commonly, what matters is how all prior knowledge is revised (or not) by new findings resulting in posterior (sometimes "subjective") probabilities.

Explaining the erectile responses of rapists to rape stories: the contributions of sexual activity, non-consent, and violence with injury.

In phallometric research, rapists have a unique pattern of erectile responses to stimuli depicting sexual activities involving coercion and violence. In this study, we attempted to determine the cues that control rapists' erectile responses to rape stories in the laboratory. A total of 12 rapists and 14 non-rapists were exposed to recorded audio scenarios that systematically varied with regard to the presence or absence of three orthogonally varied elements: sexual activity and nudity, violence and injury, and expression of non-consent.

Adolescents who have sexually offended: is phallometry valid?

It is unclear whether deviant sexual preferences distinguish adolescents who commit sex offenses in the same way that such deviance characterizes adult sex offenders. We compared male adolescents (mean age = 15 at the time of a referral sex offense), matched adult sex offenders, and normal men (adult nonoffenders or nonsex offenders). We hypothesized the following: phallometric responses of the adolescents would be similar to those of adult sex offenders and would differ from normals; adolescents with male child victims would exhibit greater evidence of sexual deviance than those whose only victims were female children; among adolescents who had molested children, those with a history of sexual abuse would exhibit more evidence of sexual deviance than those with no such history; and phallometric measures would predict recidivism.

Sexual preferences and recidivism of sex offenders with mental retardation.

By some accounts, sex offenders with mental retardation commit sex offenses against children because the offenders lack sexual knowledge or are socially and intellectually immature rather than because of sexually deviant interests. By other accounts, these offenders exhibit pedophilic sexual interests. In this study, phallometrically determined sexual interests, recidivism, and choices of victims of 69 sex offenders with mental retardation are examined and compared with those of 69 sex offenders of average or higher IQ.

Improving forensic tribunal decisions: the role of the clinician.

Three empirical investigations of forensic decision-making were conducted: a study of 104 hearings by a forensic tribunal; an evaluation of which aspects of forensic patients' clinical presentation were empirical predictors of violence; and a survey of forensic clinicians to determine which factors they said they used to assess risk of violent recidivism and which they actually used. Results showed a significant correlation between actuarial risk and clinical advice to the tribunal, and a nonsignificant trend for patients higher in actuarial risk to receive more restrictive dispositions. Psychotic diagnoses and symptoms were not indicators of increased risk of violent recidivism.

An indepth actuarial assessment for wife assault recidivism: the Domestic Violence Risk Appraisal Guide.

An actuarial tool, the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA), predicts recidivism using only variables readily obtained by frontline police officers. Correctional settings permit more comprehensive assessments. In a subset of ODARA construction and cross-validation cases, 303 men with a police record for wife assault and a correctional system file, the VRAG, SARA, Danger Assessment, and DVSI also predicted recidivism, but the Hare Psychopathy Checklist (PCL-R) best improved prediction of recidivism, occurrence, frequency, severity, injury, and charges.

Coercive and precocious sexuality as a fundamental aspect of psychopathy.

Sexual behavior is closely associated with delinquency and crime. Although psychopaths, by definition, have many short-term sexual relationships, it has not been shown that sexuality is a core aspect of psychopathy. A Darwinian view of psychopathy led to the hypothesis that psychopaths have a unique sexuality involving early, frequent, and coercive sex.

The validity of phallometric assessment with rapists: comments on Looman & Marshall (2005).

In a recent article Looman and Marshall (2005) questioned the validity of phallometric assessment of rapists based on the results of a study of incarcerated rapists and child molesters. In this commentary we offer (1) a critique of the methods used and conclusions reached by Looman and Marshall and (2) a discussion of important methodological issues relevant to phallometry. We conclude that the correct inference from Looman and Marshall's study is that rapists, as a group, show a pattern of sexual arousal to audiotaped scenarios of coercive and non-coercive sex that significantly differs from the pattern of groups of non-sex offenders, in agreement with the general literature on this question.

Effects of a Snoezelen room on the behavior of three autistic clients.

The effect of a Snoezelen room on the disruptive and prosocial behavior of three male, autistic inpatients was examined. In an ABAB reversal design, specific disruptive and prosocial behaviors were recorded for each client throughout the four 28-day periods of the study. Results indicated that the three clients had different responses to the room, but no client showed a decrease in disruptive behaviors while in the Snoezelen condition compared to baseline, and one client showed a clear pattern of increased disruptive behavior during the Snoezelen periods.

Violent sex offenses: how are they best measured from official records?

In the United States, sexually violent predator (SVP) commitment statutes generally require assessment of an offender's risk of subsequent sexual violence. Current actuarial methods for predicting sexual reoffending were actually designed to predict something else-charges or convictions for offenses deemed sexual based on information obtained from police "rapsheets" alone. This study examined the referral and past offenses of 177 sex offenders.

Comparing effect sizes in follow-up studies: ROC Area, Cohen's d, and r.

In order to facilitate comparisons across follow-up studies that have used different measures of effect size, we provide a table of effect size equivalencies for the three most common measures: ROC area (AUC), Cohen's d, and r. We outline why AUC is the preferred measure of predictive or diagnostic accuracy in forensic psychology or psychiatry, and we urge researchers and practitioners to use numbers rather than verbal labels to characterize effect sizes.

The criminogenic, clinical, and social problems of forensic and civil psychiatric patients.

Forensic psychiatric patients consume an increasing proportion of mental health resources in Canada and the United States. To inform mental health policy and practice, we compared the criminogenic, clinical, and social problems of forensic patients to those of civilly committed psychiatric patients in two Canadian studies. We predicted that forensic patients would score higher on criminogenic problems and lower on clinical and social problems than civil patients in two studies: one comparing 83 forensic and 189 civil inpatients on a clinician-completed form, the Resident Assessment Instrument--Mental Health, at an urban mental health center, and the second comparing 423 forensic and 178 civil patients assessed at different times using the Patient Problem Survey.

A brief actuarial assessment for the prediction of wife assault recidivism: the Ontario domestic assault risk assessment.

An actuarial assessment to predict male-to-female marital violence was constructed from a pool of potential predictors in a sample of 589 offenders identified in police records and followed up for an average of almost 5 years. Archival information in several domains (offender characteristics, domestic violence history, nondomestic criminal history, relationship characteristics, victim characteristics, index offense) and recidivism were subjected to setwise and stepwise logistic regression. The resulting 13-item scale, the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA), showed a large effect size in predicting new assaults against legal or common-law wives or ex-wives (Cohen's d = 1.

The screening scale for pedophilic interests predicts recidivism among adult sex offenders with child victims.

The Screening Scale for Pedophilic Interests (SSPI; Seto & Lalumière, 2001), a brief measure of sexual attraction to prepubescent children that is based on victim characteristics, was used in two samples of 113 and 145 adult male sex offenders with child victims. In both samples, the SSPI was significantly and positively correlated with an index of phallometrically-measured sexual arousal to stimuli depicting prepubescent children. It was also significantly and positively correlated in both samples with violent recidivism (meaning either nonsexually violent offenses or sexual offenses involving physical contact with a victim), and positively correlated with sexual recidivism, significantly so in the second, larger sample.

Applying a forensic actuarial assessment (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide) to nonforensic patients.

The actuarial Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) was developed for male offenders where it has shown excellent replicability in many new forensic samples using officially recorded outcomes. Clinicians also make decisions, however, about the risk of interpersonal violence posed by nonforensic psychiatric patients of both sexes. Could an actuarial risk assessment developed for male forensic populations be used for a broader clientele? We modified the VRAG to permit evaluation using data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study that included nonforensic male and female patients and primarily self-reported violence.

A multisite comparison of actuarial risk instruments for sex offenders.

Four actuarial instruments for the prediction of violent and sexual reoffending (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide [VRAG], Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide [SORAG], Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism [RRASOR] and Static-99) were evaluated in 4 samples of sex offenders (N = 396). Although all 4 instruments predicted violent (including sexual) recidivism and recidivism known to be sexually motivated, areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were consistently higher for the VRAG and the SORAG. The instruments performed better when there were fewer missing items and follow-up time was fixed, with an ROC area up to .

Adolescents' perceptions of the seriousness of sexual aggression: influence of gender, traditional attitudes, and self-reported experience.

Little is known about adolescents' perceptions of interpersonal aggression and the role of traditional social attitudes in these perceptions. Sixteen-year-old students (N = 212) of both sexes rated the seriousness of 9 aurally presented scenarios depicting either sexual or nonsexual, physical aggression. Sex of perpetrator and sex of victim were manipulated partly factorially.

The size and sign of treatment effects in sex offender therapy.

We review scientific criteria for the minimally useful evaluation of psychosocial treatment for sex offenders. The Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers recently supported a meta-analysis ((Hanson et al., 2002)) of the effectiveness of psychological treatment for sex offenders.