Background: Institutions of higher education (IHE) have been a focus of SARS-CoV-2 transmission studies but there is limited information on how viral diversity and transmission at IHE changed as the pandemic progressed.
Methods: Here we analyze 3606 viral genomes from unique COVID-19 episodes collected at a public university in Seattle, Washington from September 2020 to September 2022.
Results: Across the study period, we found evidence of frequent viral transmission among university affiliates with 60% (n = 2153) of viral genomes from campus specimens genetically identical to at least one other campus specimen.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 variants drove large waves of infections, fueled by increased transmissibility and immune escape. Current models focus on changes in variant frequencies without linking them to underlying transmission mechanisms of intrinsic transmissibility and immune escape. We introduce a framework connecting variant dynamics to these mechanisms, showing how host population immunity interacts with viral transmissibility and immune escape to determine relative variant fitness.
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