Multiple "spaces": Using wildlife surveillance, climatic variables, and spatial statistics to identify and map a climatic niche for endemic plague in California, U.S.A.

Regional climatic features in endemic areas can help inform surveillance for plague, a bacterial disease typically transmitted by fleas and maintained in mammals. We use 7,954 coyotes (Canis latrans), a sentinel species for plague, screened for plague exposure by the California Department of Public Health - Vector-Borne Disease Section (CDPH-VBDS; 1983-2015) to identify and map plague-suitable local climates within California to empirically inform ongoing sampling and surveillance plans. Using spatial point processes, we compare the distributions of seropositive and seronegative coyotes within the "space" defined by the first two principal components of PRISM Climate Group 30-year average climate variables (primarily temperature and moisture).

High variation in handling times confers 35-year stability to predator feeding rates despite community change.

Historical resurveys of ecological communities are important for placing the structure of modern ecosystems in context. Rarely, however, are snapshot surveys alone sufficient for providing direct insight into the rates of the ecological processes underlying community functioning, either now or in the past. In this study, I used a statistically reasoned observational approach to estimate the feeding rates of a New Zealand intertidal predator, Haustrum haustorium, using diet surveys performed at several sites by Robert Paine in 1968-1969 and by me in 2004.

Predator feeding rates may often be unsaturated under typical prey densities.

Predator feeding rates (described by their functional response) must saturate at high prey densities. Although thousands of manipulative functional response experiments show feeding rate saturation at high densities under controlled conditions, it remains unclear how saturated feeding rates are at natural prey densities. The general degree of feeding rate saturation has important implications for the processes determining feeding rates and how they respond to changes in prey density.

Colorado Tick Fever Virus in the Far West: Forgotten, but Not Gone.

In the past few decades, reported human cases of Colorado tick fever in the western United States have decreased dramatically. The goal of this study was to conduct surveillance for Colorado tick fever virus (CTFV) in ticks in recreational sites in Colorado, Wyoming, and California to determine whether the virus is still present in ticks from these states. Surveillance focused on regions where surveys had been conducted in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s.

Kelp-forest dynamics controlled by substrate complexity.

The factors that determine why ecosystems exhibit abrupt shifts in state are of paramount importance for management, conservation, and restoration efforts. Kelp forests are emblematic of such abruptly shifting ecosystems, transitioning from kelp-dominated to urchin-dominated states around the world with increasing frequency, yet the underlying processes and mechanisms that control their dynamics remain unclear. Here, we analyze four decades of data from biannual monitoring around San Nicolas Island, CA, to show that substrate complexity controls both the number of possible (alternative) states and the velocity with which shifts between states occur.

Exploring and Mitigating Plague for One Health Purposes.

Purpose Of Review: In 2020, the Appropriations Committee for the U.S. House of Representatives directed the CDC to develop a national One Health framework to combat zoonotic diseases, including sylvatic plague, which is caused by the flea-borne bacterium .

Indirect monitoring of ultralow dose API content in continuous wet granulation and tableting by machine vision.

This paper presents new machine vision-based methods for indirect real-time quantification of ultralow drug content during continuous twin-screw wet granulation and tableting. Granulation was performed with a solution containing carvedilol (CAR) as API in the ultralow dose range (0.05w/w% in the granule) and the addition of riboflavin (RI) as a coloured tracer.

Collective behaviour can stabilize ecosystems.

Collective behaviour is common in bacteria, plants and animals, and therefore occurs across ecosystems, from biofilms to cities. With collective behaviour, social interactions among individuals propagate to affect the behaviour of groups, whereas group-level responses in turn affect individual behaviour. These cross-scale feedback loops between individuals, populations and their environments can provide fitness benefits, such as the efficient exploitation of uncertain resources, as well as costs, such as increased resource competition.

A Comparison of Questing Substrates and Environmental Factors That Influence Nymphal Ixodes pacificus (Acari: Ixodidae) Abundance and Seasonality in the Sierra Nevada Foothills of California.

In California, the western blacklegged tick, Ixodes pacificus Cooley and Kohls, is the principal vector of the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (sl) complex (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae, Johnson et al.), which includes the causative agent of Lyme disease (B. burgdorferi sensu stricto).

Real-time release testing of dissolution based on surrogate models developed by machine learning algorithms using NIR spectra, compression force and particle size distribution as input data.

In this work spectroscopic measurements, process data and Critical Material Attributes (CMAs) are used to predict the in vitro dissolution profile of sustained-release tablets with three machine learning methods, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Ensemble of Regression Trees (ERT). Beside the effect of matrix polymer content and compression force, the influence of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) and matrix polymer particle size distribution (PSD) on the drug release rate of sustained tablets is studied. The matrix polymer PSD was found to be a significant factor, thus this factor was included in the dissolution prediction experiments.

Hidden layers of density dependence in consumer feeding rates.

Functional responses relate a consumer's feeding rates to variation in its abiotic and biotic environment, providing insight into consumer behaviour and fitness, and underpinning population and food-web dynamics. Despite their broad relevance and long-standing history, we show here that the types of density dependence found in classic resource- and consumer-dependent functional-response models equate to strong and often untenable assumptions about the independence of processes underlying feeding rates. We first demonstrate mathematically how to quantify non-independence between feeding and consumer interference and between feeding on multiple resources.

Systematic bias in studies of consumer functional responses.

Functional responses are a cornerstone to our understanding of consumer-resource interactions, so how to best describe them using models has been actively debated. Here we focus on the consumer dependence of functional responses to evidence systematic bias in the statistical comparison of functional-response models and the estimation of their parameters. Both forms of bias are universal to nonlinear models (irrespective of consumer dependence) and are rooted in a lack of sufficient replication.

Trematode parasites exceed aquatic insect biomass in Oregon stream food webs.

Although parasites are increasingly recognized for their ecosystem roles, it is often assumed that free-living organisms dominate animal biomass in most ecosystems and therefore provide the primary pathways for energy transfer. To examine the contributions of parasites to ecosystem energetics in freshwater streams, we quantified the standing biomass of trematodes and free-living organisms at nine sites in three streams in western Oregon, USA. We then compared the rates of biomass flow from snails Juga plicifera into trematode parasites relative to aquatic vertebrate predators (sculpin, cutthroat trout and Pacific giant salamanders).

Long-Term Rodent Surveillance after Outbreak of Hantavirus Infection, Yosemite National Park, California, USA, 2012.

In 2012, a total of 9 cases of hantavirus infection occurred in overnight visitors to Yosemite Valley, Yosemite National Park, California, USA. In the 6 years after the initial outbreak investigation, the California Department of Public Health conducted 11 rodent trapping events in developed areas of Yosemite Valley and 6 in Tuolumne Meadows to monitor the relative abundance of deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) and seroprevalence of Sin Nombre orthohantavirus, the causative agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. Deer mouse trap success in Yosemite Valley remained lower than that observed during the 2012 outbreak investigation.

Role of Hfq in Genome Evolution: Instability of G-Quadruplex Sequences in .

Certain G-rich DNA repeats can form quadruplex in bacterial chromatin that can present blocks to DNA replication and, if not properly resolved, may lead to mutations. To understand the participation of quadruplex DNA in genomic instability in (), mutation rates were measured for quadruplex-forming DNA repeats, including (GT), (GT), and a RET oncogene sequence, cloned as the template or nontemplate strand. We evidence that these alternative structures strongly influence mutagenesis rates.

Food-web interaction strength distributions are conserved by greater variation between than within predator-prey pairs.

Species interactions in food webs are usually recognized as dynamic, varying across species, space, and time because of biotic and abiotic drivers. Yet food webs also show emergent properties that appear consistent, such as a skewed frequency distribution of interaction strengths (many weak, few strong). Reconciling these two properties requires an understanding of the variation in pairwise interaction strengths and its underlying mechanisms.

What drives interaction strengths in complex food webs? A test with feeding rates of a generalist stream predator.

Describing the mechanisms that drive variation in species interaction strengths is central to understanding, predicting, and managing community dynamics. Multiple factors have been linked to trophic interaction strength variation, including species densities, species traits, and abiotic factors. Yet most empirical tests of the relative roles of multiple mechanisms that drive variation have been limited to simplified experiments that may diverge from the dynamics of natural food webs.

The Deer Mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) as an Enzootic Reservoir of Plague in California.

It has long been theorized that deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) are a primary reservoir of Yersinia pestis in California. However, recent research from other parts of the western USA has implicated deer mice as spillover hosts during epizootic plague transmission. This retrospective study analyzed deer mouse data collected for plague surveillance by public health agencies in California from 1971 to 2016 to help elucidate the role of deer mice in plague transmission.

New insight into the action of tryptanthrins against Plasmodium falciparum: Pharmacophore identification via a novel submolecular QSAR descriptor.

A new submolecular quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) descriptor was applied toward elucidating the anti-malarial pharmacophore of tryptanthrins, a class of compounds known for their anti-parasitic activities. The new descriptor is based on experimental and computational measurements of the tunneling barriers of individual lobes of the molecular orbitals. Lobe-by-lobe QSAR correlation plots revealed a single lobe of the LUMO to be strongly associated with tryptanthrin's anti-malarial activity.

Rapid and direct recoveries of predators and prey through synchronized ecosystem management.

One of the twenty-first century's greatest environmental challenges is to recover and restore species, habitats and ecosystems. The decision about how to initiate restoration is best-informed by an understanding of the linkages between ecosystem components and, given these linkages, an appreciation of the consequences of choosing to recover one ecosystem component before another. However, it remains difficult to predict how the sequence of species' recoveries within food webs influences the speed and trajectory of restoration, and what that means for human well-being.

Exact probabilities for the indeterminacy of complex networks as perceived through press perturbations.

We consider the goal of predicting how complex networks respond to chronic (press) perturbations when characterizations of their network topology and interaction strengths are associated with uncertainty. Our primary result is the derivation of exact formulas for the expected number and probability of qualitatively incorrect predictions about a system's responses under uncertainties drawn form arbitrary distributions of error. Additional indices provide new tools for identifying which links in a network are most qualitatively and quantitatively sensitive to error, and for determining the volume of errors within which predictions will remain qualitatively determinate (i.

Quantifying predator dependence in the functional response of generalist predators.

A long-standing debate concerns how functional responses are best described. Theory suggests that ratio dependence is consistent with many food web patterns left unexplained by the simplest prey-dependent models. However, for logistical reasons, ratio dependence and predator dependence more generally have seen infrequent empirical evaluation and then only so in specialist predators, which are rare in nature.

The application of Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify individual diet specialization.

Intraspecific variation in ecologically relevant traits is widespread. In generalist predators in particular, individual diet specialization is likely to have important consequences for food webs. Understanding individual diet specialization empirically requires the ability to quantify individual diet preferences accurately.

Experimental demonstration of a trophic cascade in the Galápagos rocky subtidal: Effects of consumer identity and behavior.

In diverse tropical webs, trophic cascades are presumed to be rare, as species interactions may dampen top-down control and reduce their prevalence. To test this hypothesis, we used an open experimental design in the Galápagos rocky subtidal that enabled a diverse guild of fish species, in the presence of each other and top predators (sea lions and sharks), to attack two species of sea urchins grazing on benthic algae. Time-lapse photography of experiments on natural and experimental substrates revealed strong species identity effects: only two predator species-blunthead triggerfish (Pseudobalistes naufragium) and finescale triggerfish (Balistes polylepis)-drove a diurnal trophic cascade extending to algae, and they preferred large pencil urchins (Eucidaris galapagensis) over green urchins (Lytechinus semituberculatus).