Integrating blue: How do we make nationally determined contributions work for both blue carbon and local coastal communities?

Blue Carbon Ecosystems (BCEs) help mitigate and adapt to climate change but their integration into policy, such as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), remains underdeveloped. Most BCE conservation requires community engagement, hence community-scale projects must be nested within the implementation of NDCs without compromising livelihoods or social justice. Thirty-three experts, drawn from academia, project development and policy, each developed ten key questions for consideration on how to achieve this.

Multiple impact pathways of the 2015-2016 El Niño in coastal Kenya.

The 2015-2016 El Niño had large impacts globally. The effects were not as great as anticipated in Kenya, however, leading some commentators to call it a 'non-event'. Our study uses a novel combination of participatory Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis tools, and new and existing social and biophysical data, to analyse vulnerability to, and the multidimensional impacts of, the 2015-2016 El Niño episode in southern coastal Kenya.

Author Correction: The future of Blue Carbon science.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

The future of Blue Carbon science.

The term Blue Carbon (BC) was first coined a decade ago to describe the disproportionately large contribution of coastal vegetated ecosystems to global carbon sequestration. The role of BC in climate change mitigation and adaptation has now reached international prominence. To help prioritise future research, we assembled leading experts in the field to agree upon the top-ten pending questions in BC science.

The thin(ning) green line? Investigating changes in Kenya's seagrass coverage.

Knowledge of seagrass distribution is limited to a few well-studied sites and poor where resources are scant (e.g. Africa), hence global estimates of seagrass carbon storage are inaccurate.

Measuring the role of seagrasses in regulating sediment surface elevation.

Seagrass meadows provide numerous ecosystem services and their rapid global loss may reduce human welfare as well as ecological integrity. In common with the other 'blue carbon' habitats (mangroves and tidal marshes) seagrasses are thought to provide coastal defence and encourage sediment stabilisation and surface elevation. A sophisticated understanding of sediment elevation dynamics in mangroves and tidal marshes has been gained by monitoring a wide range of different sites, located in varying hydrogeomorphological conditions over long periods.

Carbon storage in the seagrass meadows of Gazi Bay, Kenya.

Vegetated marine habitats are globally important carbon sinks, making a significant contribution towards mitigating climate change, and they provide a wide range of other ecosystem services. However, large gaps in knowledge remain, particularly for seagrass meadows in Africa. The present study estimated biomass and sediment organic carbon (Corg) stocks of four dominant seagrass species in Gazi Bay, Kenya.

Evaluating, predicting and mapping belowground carbon stores in Kenyan mangroves.

Despite covering only approximately 138 000 km , mangroves are globally important carbon sinks with carbon density values three to four times that of terrestrial forests. A key challenge in evaluating the carbon benefits from mangrove forest conservation is the lack of rigorous spatially resolved estimates of mangrove sediment carbon stocks; most mangrove carbon is stored belowground. Previous work has focused on detailed estimations of carbon stores over relatively small areas, which has obvious limitations in terms of generality and scope of application.

Applying Climate Compatible Development and economic valuation to coastal management: A case study of Kenya's mangrove forests.

Mangrove forests are under global pressure. Habitat destruction and degradation persist despite longstanding recognition of the important ecological functions of mangroves. Hence new approaches are needed to help stakeholders and policy-makers achieve sound management that is informed by the best science.

Rapid losses of surface elevation following tree girdling and cutting in tropical mangroves.

The importance of mangrove forests in carbon sequestration and coastal protection has been widely acknowledged. Large-scale damage of these forests, caused by hurricanes or clear felling, can enhance vulnerability to erosion, subsidence and rapid carbon losses. However, it is unclear how small-scale logging might impact on mangrove functions and services.

Turning the tide: how blue carbon and payments for ecosystem services (PES) might help save mangrove forests.

In this review paper, we aim to describe the potential for, and the key challenges to, applying PES projects to mangroves. By adopting a "carbocentric approach," we show that mangrove forests are strong candidates for PES projects. They are particularly well suited to the generation of carbon credits because of their unrivaled potential as carbon sinks, their resistance and resilience to natural hazards, and their extensive provision of Ecosystem Services other than carbon sequestration, primarily nursery areas for fish, water purification and coastal protection, to the benefit of local communities as well as to the global population.

Making predictions of mangrove deforestation: a comparison of two methods in Kenya.

Deforestation of mangroves is of global concern given their importance for carbon storage, biogeochemical cycling and the provision of other ecosystem services, but the links between rates of loss and potential drivers or risk factors are rarely evaluated. Here, we identified key drivers of mangrove loss in Kenya and compared two different approaches to predicting risk. Risk factors tested included various possible predictors of anthropogenic deforestation, related to population, suitability for land use change and accessibility.

Species mixing boosts root yield in mangrove trees.

Enhanced species richness can stimulate the productivity of plant communities; however, its effect on the belowground production of forests has scarcely been tested, despite the role of tree roots in carbon storage and ecosystem processes. Therefore, we tested for the effects of tree species richness on mangrove root biomass: thirty-two 6 m by 6 m plots were planted with zero (control), one, two or three species treatments of six-month-old Avicennia marina (A), Bruguiera gymnorrhiza (B) and Ceriops tagal (C). A monoculture of each species and the four possible combinations of the three species were used, with four replicate plots per treatment.

Intra- and interspecific facilitation in mangroves may increase resilience to climate change threats.

Mangroves are intertidal ecosystems that are particularly vulnerable to climate change. At the low tidal limits of their range, they face swamping by rising sea levels; at the high tidal limits, they face increasing stress from desiccation and high salinity. Facilitation theory may help guide mangrove management and restoration in the face of these threats by suggesting how and when positive intra- and interspecific effects may occur: such effects are predicted in stressed environments such as the intertidal, but have yet to be shown among mangroves.

Defining and detecting undesirable disturbance in the context of marine eutrophication.

An understanding of undesirable disturbance to the balance of organisms is needed to diagnose marine eutrophication as defined by EU Directives and OSPAR. This review summarizes the findings of the UK Defra-funded Undesirable Disturbance Study Team, which concluded that 'an undesirable disturbance is a perturbation of a marine ecosystem that appreciably degrades the health or threatens the sustainable human use of that ecosystem'. A methodology is proposed for detecting disturbance of temperate salt-water communities dominated by phytoplanktonic or phytobenthic primary producers.