Consequences of kelp forest ecosystem shifts and predictors of persistence through multiple stressors.

Ecological communities can be stable over multiple generations, or rapidly shift into structurally and functionally different configurations. In kelp forest ecosystems, overgrazing by sea urchins can abruptly shift forests into alternative states that are void of macroalgae and primarily dominated by actively grazing sea urchins. Beginning in 2014, a sea urchin outbreak along the central coast of California resulted in a patchy mosaic of remnant forests interspersed with sea urchin barrens.

A marine protected area network does not confer community structure resilience to a marine heatwave across coastal ecosystems.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) have gained attention as a conservation tool for enhancing ecosystem resilience to climate change. However, empirical evidence explicitly linking MPAs to enhanced ecological resilience is limited and mixed. To better understand whether MPAs can buffer climate impacts, we tested the resistance and recovery of marine communities to the 2014-2016 Northeast Pacific heatwave in the largest scientifically designed MPA network in the world off the coast of California, United States.

Multistressor global change drivers reduce hatch and viability of Lingcod embryos, a benthic egg layer in the California Current System.

Early life history stages of marine fishes are often more susceptible to environmental stressors than adult stages. This vulnerability is likely exacerbated for species that lay benthic egg masses bound to substrate because the embryos cannot evade locally unfavorable environmental conditions. Lingcod (Ophiodon elongatus), a benthic egg layer, is an ecologically and economically significant predator in the highly-productive California Current System (CCS).

Large-scale, multidecade monitoring data from kelp forest ecosystems in California and Oregon (USA).

Kelp forests are among the most productive ecosystems on Earth. In combination with their close proximity to the shore, the productivity and biodiversity of these ecosystems generate a wide range of ecosystem services including supporting (e.g.

Large-scale shift in the structure of a kelp forest ecosystem co-occurs with an epizootic and marine heatwave.

Climate change is responsible for increased frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme events, such as marine heatwaves (MHWs). Within eastern boundary current systems, MHWs have profound impacts on temperature-nutrient dynamics that drive primary productivity. Bull kelp (Nereocystis luetkeana) forests, a vital nearshore habitat, experienced unprecedented losses along 350 km of coastline in northern California beginning in 2014 and continuing through 2019.

Dispersal of a nearshore marine fish connects marine reserves and adjacent fished areas along an open coast.

Marine species with pelagic larvae typically exhibit little population structure, suggesting long-distance dispersal and high gene flow. Directly quantifying dispersal of marine fishes is challenging but important, particularly for the design of marine protected areas (MPAs). Here, we studied kelp rockfish (Sebastes atrovirens) sampled along ~25 km of coastline in a boundary current-dominated ecosystem and used genetic parentage analysis to identify dispersal events and characterize them, because the distance between sedentary parents and their settled offspring is the lifetime dispersal distance.

An ecological framework for informing permitting decisions on scientific activities in protected areas.

There are numerous reasons to conduct scientific research within protected areas, but research activities may also negatively impact organisms and habitats, and thus conflict with a protected area's conservation goals. We developed a quantitative ecological decision-support framework that estimates these potential impacts so managers can weigh costs and benefits of proposed research projects and make informed permitting decisions. The framework generates quantitative estimates of the ecological impacts of the project and the cumulative impacts of the proposed project and all other projects in the protected area, and then compares the estimated cumulative impacts of all projects with policy-based acceptable impact thresholds.

Fitting state-space integral projection models to size-structured time series data to estimate unknown parameters.

Integral projection models (IPMs) have a number of advantages over matrix-model approaches for analyzing size-structured population dynamics, because the latter require parameter estimates for each age or stage transition. However, IPMs still require appropriate data. Typically they are parameterized using individual-scale relationships between body size and demographic rates, but these are not always available.

Global patterns of kelp forest change over the past half-century.

Kelp forests (Order Laminariales) form key biogenic habitats in coastal regions of temperate and Arctic seas worldwide, providing ecosystem services valued in the range of billions of dollars annually. Although local evidence suggests that kelp forests are increasingly threatened by a variety of stressors, no comprehensive global analysis of change in kelp abundances currently exists. Here, we build and analyze a global database of kelp time series spanning the past half-century to assess regional and global trends in kelp abundances.

Managing small-scale commercial fisheries for adaptive capacity: insights from dynamic social-ecological drivers of change in Monterey Bay.

Globally, small-scale fisheries are influenced by dynamic climate, governance, and market drivers, which present social and ecological challenges and opportunities. It is difficult to manage fisheries adaptively for fluctuating drivers, except to allow participants to shift effort among multiple fisheries. Adapting to changing conditions allows small-scale fishery participants to survive economic and environmental disturbances and benefit from optimal conditions.

Marine protected area networks in California, USA.

California responded to concerns about overfishing in the 1990s by implementing a network of marine protected areas (MPAs) through two science-based decision-making processes. The first process focused on the Channel Islands, and the second addressed California's entire coastline, pursuant to the state's Marine Life Protection Act (MLPA). We review the interaction between science and policy in both processes, and lessons learned.

An online database for informing ecological network models: http://kelpforest.ucsc.edu.

Ecological network models and analyses are recognized as valuable tools for understanding the dynamics and resiliency of ecosystems, and for informing ecosystem-based approaches to management. However, few databases exist that can provide the life history, demographic and species interaction information necessary to parameterize ecological network models. Faced with the difficulty of synthesizing the information required to construct models for kelp forest ecosystems along the West Coast of North America, we developed an online database (http://kelpforest.

Marine protected area networks: assessing whether the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

Anthropogenic impacts are increasingly affecting the world's oceans. Networks of marine protected areas (MPAs) provide an option for increasing the ecological and economic benefits often provided by single MPAs. It is vital to empirically assess the effects of MPA networks and to prioritize the monitoring data necessary to explain those effects.

Wave disturbance overwhelms top-down and bottom-up control of primary production in California kelp forests.

We took advantage of regional differences in environmental forcing and consumer abundance to examine the relative importance of nutrient availability (bottom-up), grazing pressure (top-down), and storm waves (disturbance) in determining the standing biomass and net primary production (NPP) of the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera in central and southern California. Using a nine-year data set collected from 17 sites we show that, despite high densities of sea urchin grazers and prolonged periods of low nutrient availability in southern California, NPP by giant kelp was twice that of central California where nutrient concentrations were consistently high and sea urchins were nearly absent due to predation by sea otters. Waves associated with winter storms were consistently higher in central California, and the loss of kelp biomass to winter wave disturbance was on average twice that of southern California.

Designing marine reserve networks for both conservation and fisheries management.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) that exclude fishing have been shown repeatedly to enhance the abundance, size, and diversity of species. These benefits, however, mean little to most marine species, because individual protected areas typically are small. To meet the larger-scale conservation challenges facing ocean ecosystems, several nations are expanding the benefits of individual protected areas by building networks of protected areas.

Incorporating biogeography into evaluations of the Channel Islands marine reserve network.

Networks of marine reserves are increasingly a major component of many ecosystem-based management plans designed to conserve biodiversity, protect the structure and function of ecosystems, and rebuild and sustain fisheries. There is a growing need for scientific guidance in the design of network-wide monitoring programs to evaluate the efficacy of reserves at meeting their conservation and management goals. Here, we present an evaluation of the Channel Islands reserve network, which was established in 2003 off the coast of southern California.

Biodiversity, population regulation, and the stability of coral-reef fish communities.

Unprecedented population declines and extinctions because of human activities, combined with a growing recognition that such losses affect the stability of ecosystems, underscore the need to better understand how populations persist naturally. We provide field experimental evidence that high biodiversity-in particular, the combined effects of predators and competitors-acts in a way that regulates the size of local fish populations within their coral-reef community. These results indicate that complex interactions among multiple species are necessary for the stability of a highly diverse community, and so forewarn that overexploiting such species may have cascading negative consequences for the entire system.