Economy-wide impact of a reduction in tobacco use in India.

Background: Public policy measures aimed at regulating tobacco use should consider the net gains for the nation, as the tobacco sector contributes to employment and tax revenue while also imposing substantial economic burden on the country. This study investigates the economy-wide impact of reducing tobacco consumption in India through the implementation of fiscal measures.

Methods: The study uses a computable general equilibrium model based on the Global Trade Analysis Project model and database and augments the same with several country-specific information on tobacco products, to examine the macroeconomic impact of a targeted reduction in the consumption of bidis, cigarettes and smokeless tobacco by 10% by the year 2026 through the adoption of fiscal measures.

How does the e-cigarette industry respond to tax adjustments? Evidence from China.

Introduction: China enacted an excise tax on e-cigarettes in November 2022, which offers a distinctive opportunity to examine the industry's reactions to this fiscal adjustment. This study delves into the industry's pricing strategies following the introduction of the excise tax, facilitating a thorough assessment of the subsequent impact on market dynamics and the government's revenue streams.

Methods: We developed a TaXSiM model specifically tailored for e-cigarettes in China by integrating the country's e-cigarette tax framework.

Revisiting the tax treatment of bidis in India.

Background: Bidi use remains an intractable public health problem for India. This is partly due to the informal nature of the bidi supply chain, including tax exemptions for small producers. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of making all bidis subject to duty and Goods and Services Tax.

Modelling the expected impact of cigarette tax and price increases under Vietnam's excise tax law 2015-2020.

Background: Vietnam's national tobacco control strategy aims to reduce the rate of smoking among male adults from 45% in 2015 to 39% by 2020. The aim of this paper is to assess what contribution cigarette tax increases under Vietnam's current excise tax plan can be expected to make to this target, and to discuss what additional measures might be implemented accordingly.

Methods: This study uses a mix of administrative datasets and predictive modelling techniques to assess the expected impact of tax and price increases on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues and the rate of smoking between 2015 and 2020.

Estimating illicit cigarette consumption using a tax-gap approach, India.

Objective: To estimate the magnitude of illicit cigarette consumption in India using a tax-gap approach.

Methods: In the tax-gap analysis, illicit cigarette consumption in India was defined as the difference between total and legal consumption. Data on total cigarette consumption came from two national Global Adult Tobacco Surveys carried out from 2009 to 2010 and from 2016 to 2017.

Potential impact of eliminating illicit trade in cigarettes: a demand-side perspective.

Background: The Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products (the Protocol) entered into force in September 2018, and commits Parties to implement a package of measures to combat this global problem. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of eliminating illicit cigarettes on consumption, use and tax revenues.

Methods: We identified 36 countries where an independent (non-industry sponsored) study of the illicit cigarette market was available.

Changes in the affordability of tobacco products in India during 2007/2008 to 2017/2018: a price-relative-to-income analysis.

Background: Increasing the price of tobacco through taxation is a very effective means of reducing tobacco use. However, the impact of price increases can be diluted if consumer incomes are growing strongly. The affordability of tobacco products has, therefore, become an important indicator for tobacco control.

Tobacco industry pricing undermines tobacco tax policy: A tale from Bangladesh.

The effectiveness of tax increase in reducing tobacco use depends on the extent to which the industry passes on the tax to consumers. Evidence suggests that tobacco industry may absorb or raise the price more than the tax increase depending on the price segment of tobacco products. In this paper, we examined the industry's pricing strategy by price segment of the cigarette market in Bangladesh by observing the deviation between the market retail prices (MRP) of cigarettes faced by consumers and government recommended retail prices (RRP) used as tax base in a four-tiered ad valorem tax structure.

A decade of cigarette taxation in Bangladesh: lessons learnt for tobacco control.

Bangladesh has achieved a high share of tax in the price of cigarettes (greater than the 75% benchmark), but has not achieved the expected health benefits from reduction in cigarette consumption. In this paper we explore why cigarette taxation has not succeeded in reducing cigarette smoking in Bangladesh. Using government records over 2006-2017, we link trends in tax-paid cigarette sales to cigarette excise tax structure and changes in cigarette taxes and prices.

Estimated impact of the GST on tobacco products in India.

Objective: To examine the potential impact of the goods and services tax (GST) on price, consumption and tax revenue from tobacco products in India and across states.

Methods: Data on prices, tax rates and tax revenue are used to estimate a benchmark scenario prior to the GST implementation in 2017-2018. Using own-price elasticity of demand for tobacco products, we estimate the impact of GST at the state level and the aggregate state-wise impact to obtain the national level impact.

Tobacco control and Healthy China 2030.

Background: The Healthy China 2030 strategy sets ambitious targets for China's policy-makers, including a decrease in the smoking rate from 27.7% in 2015 to 20% by 2030. China has made progress on tobacco control in recent years, but many key measures remain underused.

Early assessment of China's 2015 tobacco tax increase.

In 2015, the Chinese government raised tobacco excise tax for the first time since 2009. Changing from previous practice, the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration raised its cigarette prices at the same time. We assessed the early impact of the 2015 tax increase on cigarette prices, sales volumes, tax revenue generation and the potential effect on prevalence of smoking in China.

Generating revenue by raising tobacco taxes in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Objective: The objective of this study was to determine if raising tobacco taxes in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region will generate extra tax revenue, even at outer edges of the sensitivity analysis, with relatively high price elasticities of demand for cigarettes.

Methods: A model of the cigarette market in 31 LAC countries was developed using cigarette tax, price, and retail sales data for 2014. It was then assumed that all countries increased the excise tax by 50% per pack.

Cost-effectiveness of a smokeless tobacco control mass media campaign in India.

Background: Tobacco control mass media campaigns are cost-effective in reducing tobacco consumption in high-income countries, but similar evidence from low-income countries is limited. An evaluation of a 2009 smokeless tobacco control mass media campaign in India provided an opportunity to test its cost-effectiveness.

Methods: Campaign evaluation data from a nationally representative household survey of 2898 smokeless tobacco users were compared with campaign costs in a standard cost-effectiveness methodology.

Global economic cost of smoking-attributable diseases.

Background: The detrimental impact of smoking on health has been widely documented since the 1960s. Numerous studies have also quantified the economic cost that smoking imposes on society. However, these studies have mostly been in high income countries, with limited documentation from developing countries.

Modelling the impact of raising tobacco taxes on public health and finance.

Objective: To investigate the potential for tobacco tax to contribute to the 2030 agenda for sustainable development by reducing tobacco use, saving lives and generating tax revenues.

Methods: A model of the global cigarette market in 2014--developed using data for 181 countries--was used to quantify the impact of raising cigarette excise in each country by one international dollar (I$) per 20-cigarette pack. All currencies were converted into I$ using purchasing power parity exchange rates.