Bias-Adjusted Predictions of County-Level Vaccination Coverage from the COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey.

Background: The potential for selection bias in nonrepresentative, large-scale, low-cost survey data can limit their utility for population health measurement and public health decision making. We developed an approach to bias adjust county-level COVID-19 vaccination coverage predictions from the large-scale US COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey.

Design: We developed a multistep regression framework to adjust for selection bias in predicted county-level vaccination coverage plateaus.

Examining Opportunities to Increase Savings From Medicare Price Negotiations.

Importance: Allowing the US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services to negotiate prescription drug prices for Medicare may improve drug affordability.

Objective: To estimate savings from Medicare price negotiation under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and examine opportunities to increase savings.

Design, Setting, And Participants: This cross-sectional, population-based study used data from 2020 Medicare prescription drug claims.

Assessing the impact of community-based interventions on hypertension and diabetes management in three Minnesota communities: Findings from the prospective evaluation of US HealthRise programs.

Background: Community-based health interventions are increasingly viewed as models of care that can bridge healthcare gaps experienced by underserved communities in the United States (US). With this study, we sought to assess the impact of such interventions, as implemented through the US HealthRise program, on hypertension and diabetes among underserved communities in Hennepin, Ramsey, and Rice Counties, Minnesota.

Methods And Findings: HealthRise patient data from June 2016 to October 2018 were assessed relative to comparison patients in a difference-in-difference analysis, quantifying program impact on reducing systolic blood pressure (SBP) and hemoglobin A1c, as well as meeting clinical targets (< 140 mmHg for hypertension, < 8% Al1c for diabetes), beyond routine care.

Health effects associated with smoking: a Burden of Proof study.

As a leading behavioral risk factor for numerous health outcomes, smoking is a major ongoing public health challenge. Although evidence on the health effects of smoking has been widely reported, few attempts have evaluated the dose-response relationship between smoking and a diverse range of health outcomes systematically and comprehensively. In the present study, we re-estimated the dose-response relationships between current smoking and 36 health outcomes by conducting systematic reviews up to 31 May 2022, employing a meta-analytic method that incorporates between-study heterogeneity into estimates of uncertainty.

The Burden of Proof studies: assessing the evidence of risk.

Exposure to risks throughout life results in a wide variety of outcomes. Objectively judging the relative impact of these risks on personal and population health is fundamental to individual survival and societal prosperity. Existing mechanisms to quantify and rank the magnitude of these myriad effects and the uncertainty in their estimation are largely subjective, leaving room for interpretation that can fuel academic controversy and add to confusion when communicating risk.

The US COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey: Continuous real-time measurement of COVID-19 symptoms, risks, protective behaviors, testing, and vaccination.

The US COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey (CTIS) is a large, cross-sectional, internet-based survey that has operated continuously since April 6, 2020. By inviting a random sample of Facebook active users each day, CTIS collects information about COVID-19 symptoms, risks, mitigating behaviors, mental health, testing, vaccination, and other key priorities. The large scale of the survey-over 20 million responses in its first year of operation-allows tracking of trends over short timescales and allows comparisons at fine demographic and geographic detail.

Quantifying and Benchmarking Disparities in COVID-19 Vaccination Rates by Race and Ethnicity.

This decision analytical model quantifies disparities in uptake of COVID-19 vaccination by race and ethnicity and models alternative scenarios of persistent differential uptake and reduced barriers to access.

Dependence of COVID-19 Policies on End-of-Year Holiday Contacts in Mexico City Metropolitan Area: A Modeling Study.

Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) has the largest number of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) cases in Mexico and is at risk of exceeding its hospital capacity in early 2021. We used the Stanford-CIDE Coronavirus Simulation Model (SC-COSMO), a dynamic transmission model of COVID-19, to evaluate the effect of policies considering increased contacts during the end-of-year holidays, intensification of physical distancing, and school reopening on projected confirmed cases and deaths, hospital demand, and hospital capacity exceedance. Model parameters were derived from primary data, literature, and calibrated.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and initiation among young people in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019.

Background: Universally, smoking cessation rates among established smokers are poor. Preventing young people from starting use of and becoming addicted to tobacco products remains a key strategy to end the tobacco epidemic. Previous country-specific studies have found that initiation of smoking tobacco use occurs predominantly among young people and have found mixed progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use among young people.

Racial/Ethnic Disparities In COVID-19 Exposure Risk, Testing, And Cases At The Subcounty Level In California.

With a population of forty million and substantial geographic variation in sociodemographics and health services, California is an important setting in which to study disparities. Its population (37.5 percent White, 39.

The effects of tobacco control policies on global smoking prevalence.

Substantial global effort has been devoted to curtailing the tobacco epidemic over the past two decades, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control by the World Health Organization in 2003. In 2015, in recognition of the burden resulting from tobacco use, strengthened tobacco control was included as a global development target in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Here we show that comprehensive tobacco control policies-including smoking bans, health warnings, advertising bans and tobacco taxes-are effective in reducing smoking prevalence; amplified positive effects are seen when these policies are implemented simultaneously within a given country.

How do Covid-19 policy options depend on end-of-year holiday contacts in Mexico City Metropolitan Area? A Modeling Study.

Background: With more than 20 million residents, Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) has the largest number of Covid-19 cases in Mexico and is at risk of exceeding its hospital capacity in late December 2020.

Methods: We used SC-COSMO, a dynamic compartmental Covid-19 model, to evaluate scenarios considering combinations of increased contacts during the holiday season, intensification of social distancing, and school reopening. Model parameters were derived from primary data from MCMA, published literature, and calibrated to time-series of incident confirmed cases, deaths, and hospital occupancy.

Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

Trends in prevalence and mortality burden attributable to smoking, Brazil and federated units, 1990 and 2017.

Background: The present study sought to analyze smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality estimates produced by the 2017 Global Burden of Disease Study for Brazil, 26 states, and the Federal District.

Methods: Prevalence of current smokers from 1990 to 2017 by sex and age was estimated using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Population-attributable fractions were calculated for different risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality.

Reexamining Rates of Decline in Lung Cancer Risk after Smoking Cessation. A Meta-analysis.

Prior studies have questioned whether prevailing eligibility criteria for lung cancer screening are sufficiently inclusive of former smokers who remain at elevated risk of disease outside current screening windows. To characterize the percentage of the reducible relative risk (RR) remaining for lung cancer as a function of years since quitting (YSQ). MEDLINE and PubMed were searched from January 2011 to May 2018; key search terms included "smoking" and "cancer.

Community-based interventions for detection and management of diabetes and hypertension in underserved communities: a mixed-methods evaluation in Brazil, India, South Africa and the USA.

Introduction: As non-communicable disease (NCD) burden rises worldwide, community-based programmes are a promising strategy to bridge gaps in NCD care. The HealthRise programme sought to improve hypertension and diabetes management for underserved communities in nine sites across Brazil, India, South Africa and the USA between 2016 and 2018. This study presents findings from the programme's endline evaluation.

Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016-40 for 195 countries and territories.

Background: Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. Past work on forecasting has provided an incomplete landscape of future health scenarios, highlighting a need for a more robust modelling platform from which policy options and potential health trajectories can be assessed. This study provides a novel approach to modelling life expectancy, all-cause mortality and cause of death forecasts -and alternative future scenarios-for 250 causes of death from 2016 to 2040 in 195 countries and territories.

HIV-1 second-line failure and drug resistance at high-level and low-level viremia in Western Kenya.

Objective: Characterize failure and resistance above and below guidelines-recommended 1000 copies/ml virologic threshold, upon second-line failure.

Design: Cross-sectional study.

Methods: Kenyan adults on lopinavir/ritonavir-based second-line were enrolled at AMPATH (Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare).

The Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases Among US States, 1990-2016.

Importance: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States, but regional variation within the United States is large. Comparable and consistent state-level measures of total CVD burden and risk factors have not been produced previously.

Objective: To quantify and describe levels and trends of lost health due to CVD within the United States from 1990 to 2016 as well as risk factors driving these changes.

Identifying gaps in the continuum of care for hypertension and diabetes in two Indian communities.

Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represent the largest, and fastest growing, burden of disease in India. This study aimed to quantify levels of diagnosis, treatment, and control among hypertensive and diabetic patients, and to describe demand- and supply-side barriers to hypertension and diabetes diagnosis and care in two Indian districts, Shimla and Udaipur.

Methods: We conducted household and health facility surveys, as well as qualitative focus group discussions and interviews.

Health Effects of Overweight and Obesity in 195 Countries over 25 Years.

Background: Although the rising pandemic of obesity has received major attention in many countries, the effects of this attention on trends and the disease burden of obesity remain uncertain.

Methods: We analyzed data from 68.5 million persons to assess the trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adults between 1980 and 2015.