Few and feasible preoperative variables can identify high-risk surgical patients: derivation and validation of the Ex-Care risk model.

Background: The development of feasible preoperative risk tools is desirable, especially for low-middle income countries with limited resources and complex surgical settings. This study aimed to derive and validate a preoperative risk model (Ex-Care model) for postoperative mortality and compare its performance with current risk tools.

Methods: A multivariable logistic regression model predicting in-hospital mortality was developed using a large Brazilian surgical cohort.