Effect of Rising Temperature on Lyme Disease: Population Dynamics and Transmission and Prevalence.

Warmer temperatures are expected to increase the incidence of Lyme disease through enhanced tick maturation rates and a longer season of transmission. In addition, there could be an increased risk of disease export because of infected mobile hosts, usually birds. A temperature-driven seasonal model of (Lyme disease) transmission among four host types is constructed as a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations.