Forecasting the relative abundance of Aedes vector populations to enhance situational awareness for mosquito control operations.

Aedes-borne diseases represent a major public health threat and mosquito control operations represent a key line of defense. Improving the real-time awareness of mosquito control authorities by providing reliable forecasts of the relative abundance of mosquito vectors could greatly enhance control efforts. To this aim, we developed an analytical tool that forecasts Aedes aegypti relative abundance 1 to 4 weeks ahead.

Evaluating Seasonal Variations in Human Contact Patterns and Their Impact on the Transmission of Respiratory Infectious Diseases.

Background: Human contact patterns are a key determinant driving the spread of respiratory infectious diseases. However, the relationship between contact patterns and seasonality as well as their possible association with the seasonality of respiratory diseases is yet to be clarified.

Methods: We investigated the association between temperature and human contact patterns using data collected through a cross-sectional diary-based contact survey in Shanghai, China, between December 24, 2017, and May 30, 2018.

Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations.

Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. Forecasting teams were asked to provide national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one through four weeks ahead for the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons. Across both seasons, 26 teams submitted forecasts, with the submitting teams varying between seasons.

Spatiotemporal distribution of vector mosquito species and areas at risk for arbovirus transmission in Maricopa County, Arizona.

Mosquito-borne diseases are a major global public health concern and mosquito surveillance systems are essential for the implementation of effective mosquito control strategies. The objective of our study is to determine the spatiotemporal distribution of vector mosquito species in Maricopa County, AZ from 2011 to 2021, and to identify the hotspot areas for West Nile virus (WNV) and St. Louis Encephalitis virus (SLEV) transmission in 2021.

TLRs Gene Polymorphisms Associated with Pneumonia before and during COVID-19 Pandemic.

Background: The progression of infectious diseases depends on the characteristics of a patient's innate immunity, and the efficiency of an immune system depends on the patient's genetic factors, including SNPs in the genes. In this pilot study, we determined the frequency of alleles in these SNPs in a subset of patients with pneumonia.

Methods: This study assessed six SNPs from genes: rs5743551 (), rs5743708, rs3804100 (), rs4986790 (), rs5743810 (), and rs3764880 ().

Estimation of the incubation period and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Delta variants from contact tracing data.

Quantitative information on epidemiological quantities such as the incubation period and generation time of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants is scarce. We analysed a dataset collected during contact tracing activities in the province of Reggio Emilia, Italy, throughout 2021. We determined the distributions of the incubation period for the Alpha and Delta variants using information on negative polymerase chain reaction tests and the date of last exposure from 282 symptomatic cases.

A Unique Observation of a Patient with Vulto-van Silfhout-de Vries Syndrome.

Introduction: Vulto-van Silfhout-de Vries Syndrome (VSVS; OMIM#615828) is a rare hereditary disease associated with impaired intellectual development and speech, delayed psychomotor development, and behavioral anomalies, including autistic behavioral traits and poor eye contact. To date, 27 patients with VSVS have been reported in the literature. Materials and Methods: We describe a 23-year-old male patient with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) who was admitted to the gastroenterological hospital with signs of pseudomembranous colitis.

Investigating the relationship between interventions, contact patterns, and SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility.

Background: After a rapid upsurge of COVID-19 cases in Italy during the fall of 2020, the government introduced a three-tiered restriction system aimed at increasing physical distancing. The Ministry of Health, after periodic epidemiological risk assessments, assigned a tier to each of the 21 Italian regions and autonomous provinces. It is still unclear to what extent these different sets of measures altered the number of daily interactions and the social mixing patterns.

Quantifying the importance and location of SARS-CoV-2 transmission events in large metropolitan areas.

Detailed characterization of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission across different settings can help design less disruptive interventions. We used real-time, privacy-enhanced mobility data in the New York City, NY and Seattle, WA metropolitan areas to build a detailed agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 infection to estimate the where, when, and magnitude of transmission events during the pandemic's first wave. We estimate that only 18% of individuals produce most infections (80%), with about 10% of events that can be considered superspreading events (SSEs).

Physiological health indexes predict deterioration and mortality in patients with COVID-19: a comparative study.

Old age is a crucial risk factor for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), with serious or fatal outcomes disproportionately affecting older adults compared with the rest of the population. We proposed that the physiological health status and biological age, beyond the chronological age itself, could be the driving trends affecting COVID-19 severity and mortality. A total of 155 participants hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19 aged 26-94 years were recruited for the study.

Model-based evaluation of alternative reactive class closure strategies against COVID-19.

There are contrasting results concerning the effect of reactive school closure on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To shed light on this controversy, we developed a data-driven computational model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We found that by reactively closing classes based on syndromic surveillance, SARS-CoV-2 infections are reduced by no more than 17.

Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 wave.

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the timeline of introductions and onsets of local transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) globally. Although a limited number of SARS-CoV-2 introductions were reported in January and February 2020 (refs.), the narrowness of the initial testing criteria, combined with a slow growth in testing capacity and porous travel screening, left many countries vulnerable to unmitigated, cryptic transmission.

Association of , and Genes Polymorphisms With the Calcium Urolithiasis Development in Russian Population.

Kidney stone disease is an urgent medical and social problem. Genetic factors play an important role in the disease development. This study aims to establish an association between polymorphisms in genes coding for proteins involved in calcium metabolism and the development of calcium urolithiasis in Russian population.

The impact of relaxing interventions on human contact patterns and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in China.

Nonpharmaceutical interventions to control SARS-CoV-2 spread have been implemented with different intensity, timing, and impact on transmission. As a result, post-lockdown COVID-19 dynamics are heterogeneous and difficult to interpret. We describe a set of contact surveys performed in four Chinese cities (Wuhan, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Changsha) during the pre-pandemic, lockdown and post-lockdown periods to quantify changes in contact patterns.

Model-based evaluation of alternative reactive class closure strategies against COVID-19.

There are contrasting results concerning the effect of reactive school closure on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To shed light on this controversy, here we develop a data-driven computational model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to investigate mechanistically the effect on COVID-19 outbreaks of school closure strategies based on syndromic surveillance and antigen screening of students. We found that by reactively closing classes based on syndromic surveillance, SARS-CoV-2 infections are reduced by no more than 13.

Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 wave in Europe and the United States.

Given the narrowness of the initial testing criteria, the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread through cryptic transmission in January and February, setting the stage for the epidemic wave experienced in March and April, 2020. We use a global metapopulation epidemic model to provide a mechanistic understanding of the global dynamic underlying the establishment of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and the United States (US). The model is calibrated on international case introductions at the early stage of the pandemic.

Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China.

Several mechanisms driving SARS-CoV-2 transmission remain unclear. Based on individual records of 1178 potential SARS-CoV-2 infectors and their 15,648 contacts in Hunan, China, we estimated key transmission parameters. The mean generation time was estimated to be 5.

Inferring high-resolution human mixing patterns for disease modeling.

Mathematical and computational modeling approaches are increasingly used as quantitative tools in the analysis and forecasting of infectious disease epidemics. The growing need for realism in addressing complex public health questions is, however, calling for accurate models of the human contact patterns that govern the disease transmission processes. Here we present a data-driven approach to generate effective population-level contact matrices by using highly detailed macro (census) and micro (survey) data on key socio-demographic features.

Transmission heterogeneities, kinetics, and controllability of SARS-CoV-2.

A long-standing question in infectious disease dynamics concerns the role of transmission heterogeneities, which are driven by demography, behavior, and interventions. On the basis of detailed patient and contact-tracing data in Hunan, China, we find that 80% of secondary infections traced back to 15% of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) primary infections, which indicates substantial transmission heterogeneities. Transmission risk scales positively with the duration of exposure and the closeness of social interactions and is modulated by demographic and clinical factors.

Transmission heterogeneities, kinetics, and controllability of SARS-CoV-2.

Unlabelled: A long-standing question in infectious disease dynamics concerns the role of transmission heterogeneities, driven by demography, behavior and interventions. Based on detailed patient and contact tracing data in Hunan, China we find 80% of secondary infections traced back to 15% of SARS-CoV-2 primary infections, indicating substantial transmission heterogeneities. Transmission risk scales positively with the duration of exposure and the closeness of social interactions and is modulated by demographic and clinical factors.