Observation-constrained projections reveal longer-than-expected dry spells.

Climate models indicate that dry extremes will be exacerbated in many regions of the world. However, confidence in the magnitude and timing of these projected changes remains low, leaving societies largely unprepared. Here we show that constraining model projections with observations using a newly proposed emergent constraint (EC) reduces the uncertainty in predictions of a core drought indicator, the longest annual dry spell (LAD), by 10-26% globally.

Climate-driven models of leptospirosis dynamics in tropical islands from three oceanic basins.

Background: Leptospirosis is a neglected zoonosis which remains poorly known despite its epidemic potential, especially in tropical islands where outdoor lifestyle, vulnerability to invasive reservoir species and hot and rainy climate constitute higher risks for infections. Burden remains poorly documented while outbreaks can easily overflow health systems of these isolated and poorly populated areas. Identification of generic patterns driving leptospirosis dynamics across tropical islands would help understand its epidemiology for better preparedness of communities.

Global hotspots for the occurrence of compound events.

Compound events (CEs) are weather and climate events that result from multiple hazards or drivers with the potential to cause severe socio-economic impacts. Compared with isolated hazards, the multiple hazards/drivers associated with CEs can lead to higher economic losses and death tolls. Here, we provide the first analysis of multiple multivariate CEs potentially causing high-impact floods, droughts, and fires.

Mass mortality events in atoll lagoons: environmental control and increased future vulnerability.

Coral reefs and lagoons worldwide are vulnerable environments. However, specific geomorphological reef types (fringing, barrier, atoll, bank for the main ones) can be vulnerable to specific disturbances that will not affect most other reefs. This has implications for local management and science priorities.