Multi-target scenario discovery to plan for sustainable food and land systems in Australia.

Unlabelled: The development of detailed national pathways towards sustainable food and land systems aims to provide stakeholders with clarity on how long-term goals could be achieved and to reduce roadblocks in the way to making commitments. However, the inability to perfectly capture the relationships between all variables in a system and the unknown probability of future values (deep uncertainty) makes it very difficult to design scenarios that account for the full breadth of system uncertainty. Here we use scenario discovery to systematically explore the effect of different parameter ranges on model outputs, and design resilient pathways to sustainability in which multiple target achievement requires a broad portfolio of solutions.

Operationalizing the net-negative carbon economy.

The remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius will probably be exhausted within this decade. Carbon debt generated thereafter will need to be compensated by net-negative emissions.

Little Ice Age climatic erraticism as an analogue for future enhanced hydroclimatic variability across the American Southwest.

The American Southwest has experienced a series of severe droughts interspersed with strong wet episodes over the past decades, prompting questions about future climate patterns and potential intensification of weather disruptions under warming conditions. Here we show that interannual hydroclimatic variability in this region has displayed a significant level of non-stationarity over the past millennium. Our tree ring-based analysis of past drought indicates that the Little Ice Age (LIA) experienced high interannual hydroclimatic variability, similar to projections for the 21st century.