Best-response dynamics, playing sequences, and convergence to equilibrium in random games.

We analyze the performance of the best-response dynamic across all normal-form games using a random games approach. The playing sequence-the order in which players update their actions-is essentially irrelevant in determining whether the dynamic converges to a Nash equilibrium in certain classes of games (e.g.

On learning agent-based models from data.

Agent-Based Models (ABMs) are used in several fields to study the evolution of complex systems from micro-level assumptions. However, a significant drawback of ABMs is their inability to estimate agent-specific (or "micro") variables, which hinders their ability to make accurate predictions using micro-level data. In this paper, we propose a protocol to learn the latent micro-variables of an ABM from data.

Forecasting the propagation of pandemic shocks with a dynamic input-output model.

We introduce a dynamic disequilibrium input-output model that was used to forecast the economics of the COVID-19 pandemic. This model was designed to understand the upstream and downstream propagation of the industry-specific demand and supply shocks caused by COVID-19, which were exceptional in their severity, suddenness and heterogeneity across industries. The model, which was inspired in part by previous work on the response to natural disasters, includes the introduction of a new functional form for production functions, which allowed us to create bespoke production functions for each industry based on a survey of industry analysts.

Best reply structure and equilibrium convergence in generic games.

Game theory is widely used to model interacting biological and social systems. In some situations, players may converge to an equilibrium, e.g.

Home is where the ad is: online interest proxies housing demand.

Online activity leaves digital traces of human behavior. In this paper we investigate if online interest can be used as a proxy of housing demand, a key yet so far mostly unobserved feature of housing markets. We analyze data from an Italian website of housing sales advertisements (ads).