Loss of geomorphic diversity in shallow tidal embayments promoted by storm-surge barriers.

Coastal flooding prevention measures, such as storm-surge barriers, are being widely adopted globally because of the accelerating rise in sea levels. However, their impacts on the morphodynamics of shallow tidal embayments remain poorly understood. Here, we combine field data and modeling results from the microtidal Venice Lagoon (Italy) to identify short- and long-term consequences of flood regulation on lagoonal landforms.

Intensity and frequency of extreme novel epidemics.

Observational knowledge of the epidemic intensity, defined as the number of deaths divided by global population and epidemic duration, and of the rate of emergence of infectious disease outbreaks is necessary to test theory and models and to inform public health risk assessment by quantifying the probability of extreme pandemics such as COVID-19. Despite its significance, assembling and analyzing a comprehensive global historical record spanning a variety of diseases remains an unexplored task. A global dataset of historical epidemics from 1600 to present is here compiled and examined using novel statistical methods to estimate the yearly probability of occurrence of extreme epidemics.

Deforestation Due to Artisanal and Small-Scale Gold Mining Exacerbates Soil and Mercury Mobilization in Madre de Dios, Peru.

Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) is a significant contributor of mercury (Hg) contamination and deforestation across the globe. In the Colorado River watershed in Madre de Dios, Peru, mining and deforestation have increased exponentially since the 1980s, resulting in major socioeconomic shifts in the region and two national state of emergency (2016 and 2019) in response to concerns for wide-scale mercury poisoning by these activities. This research employed a watershed-scale soil particle detachment model and environmental field sampling to estimate the role of land cover change and soil erosion on river transport of Hg in a heavily ASGM-impacted watershed.

Field migration rates of tidal meanders recapitulate fluvial morphodynamics.

The majority of tidal channels display marked meandering features. Despite their importance in oil-reservoir formation and tidal landscape morphology, questions remain on whether tidal-meander dynamics could be understood in terms of fluvial processes and theory. Key differences suggest otherwise, like the periodic reversal of landscape-forming tidal flows and the widely accepted empirical notion that tidal meanders are stable landscape features, in stark contrast with their migrating fluvial counterparts.

The predictability of mosquito abundance from daily to monthly timescales.

The prediction of mosquito abundance is of central interest in addressing mosquito population dynamics and in forecasting the associated emerging and re-emerging diseases. However, little work has focused on the systematic evaluation of how well adult mosquito abundance can be predicted as a function of observational resolutions, aggregation scales, and prediction lead time. We use a state space reconstruction (SSR) approach to compare the predictability of mosquito population dynamics at weekly, biweekly, and monthly scales.

Soil-plant-atmosphere conditions regulating convective cloud formation above southeastern US pine plantations.

Loblolly pine trees (Pinus taeda L.) occupy more than 20% of the forested area in the southern United States, represent more than 50% of the standing pine volume in this region, and remove from the atmosphere about 500 g C m-2 per year through net ecosystem exchange. Hence, their significance as a major regional carbon sink can hardly be disputed.

Spatial response of coastal marshes to increased atmospheric CO2.

The elevation and extent of coastal marshes are dictated by the interplay between the rate of relative sea-level rise (RRSLR), surface accretion by inorganic sediment deposition, and organic soil production by plants. These accretion processes respond to changes in local and global forcings, such as sediment delivery to the coast, nutrient concentrations, and atmospheric CO2, but their relative importance for marsh resilience to increasing RRSLR remains unclear. In particular, marshes up-take atmospheric CO2 at high rates, thereby playing a major role in the global carbon cycle, but the morphologic expression of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, an imminent aspect of climate change, has not yet been isolated and quantified.

The temporal spectrum of adult mosquito population fluctuations: conceptual and modeling implications.

An improved understanding of mosquito population dynamics under natural environmental forcing requires adequate field observations spanning the full range of temporal scales over which mosquito abundance fluctuates in natural conditions. Here we analyze a 9-year daily time series of uninterrupted observations of adult mosquito abundance for multiple mosquito species in North Carolina to identify characteristic scales of temporal variability, the processes generating them, and the representativeness of observations at different sampling resolutions. We focus in particular on Aedes vexans and Culiseta melanura and, using a combination of spectral analysis and modeling, we find significant population fluctuations with characteristic periodicity between 2 days and several years.

The secret gardener: vegetation and the emergence of biogeomorphic patterns in tidal environments.

The presence and continued existence of tidal morphologies, and in particular of salt marshes, is intimately connected with biological activity, especially with the presence of halophytic vegetation. Here, we review recent contributions to tidal biogeomorphology and identify the presence of multiple competing stable states arising from a two-way feedback between biomass productivity and topographic elevation. Hence, through the analysis of previous and new results on spatially extended biogeomorphological systems, we show that multiple stable states constitute a unifying framework explaining emerging patterns in tidal environments from the local to the system scale.

The secret gardener: vegetation and the emergence of biogeomorphic patterns in tidal environments.

The presence and continued existence of tidal morphologies, and in particular of salt marshes, is intimately connected with biological activity, especially with the presence of halophytic vegetation. Here, we review recent contributions to tidal biogeomorphology and identify the presence of multiple competing stable states arising from a two-way feedback between biomass productivity and topographic elevation. Hence, through the analysis of previous and new results on spatially extended biogeomorphological systems, we show that multiple stable states constitute a unifying framework explaining emerging patterns in tidal environments from the local to the system scale.

Vegetation engineers marsh morphology through multiple competing stable states.

Marshes display impressive biogeomorphic features, such as zonation, a mosaic of extensive vegetation patches of rather uniform composition, exhibiting sharp transitions in the presence of extremely small topographic gradients. Although generally associated with the accretion processes necessary for marshes to keep up with relative sea level rise, competing environmental constraints, and ecologic controls, zonation is still poorly understood in terms of the underlying biogeomorphic mechanisms. Here we find, through observations and modeling interpretation, that zonation is the result of coupled geomorphological-biological dynamics and that it stems from the ability of vegetation to actively engineer the landscape by tuning soil elevation within preferential ranges of optimal adaptation.

Non-neutral vegetation dynamics.

The neutral theory of biodiversity constitutes a reference null hypothesis for the interpretation of ecosystem dynamics and produces relatively simple analytical descriptions of basic system properties, which can be easily compared to observations. On the contrary, investigations in non-neutral dynamics have in the past been limited by the complexity arising from heterogeneous demographic behaviours and by the relative paucity of detailed observations of the spatial distribution of species diversity (beta-diversity): These circumstances prevented the development and testing of explicit non-neutral mathematical descriptions linking competitive strategies and observable ecosystem properties. Here we introduce an exact non-neutral model of vegetation dynamics, based on cloning and seed dispersal, which yields closed-form characterizations of beta-diversity.