Modelling the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign in Italy: the fundamental role of unreported cases.

In Italy and around the world, the year 2021 was dedicated to vaccination campaigns against the COVID-19 epidemic arising after the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in China in 2019. In December 2020, we proposed a model prediction for the effects of vaccination, and now, after more than 9 months of the vaccination campaign, a comparison of those predictions with the actual data is mandatory. Surprising evidences emerge suggesting new strategies to consider regarding the spread of the virus and to protect frail people.

Modelling SARS-CoV-2 unreported cases in Italy: Analysis of serological survey and vaccination scenarios.

Objectives: Aim of the present paper is the study of the large unreported component, characterizing the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic event in Italy, taking advantage of the Istat survey. Particular attention is devoted to the sensitivity and specificity of the serological test and their effects.

Methods: The model satisfactory reproduces the data of the Italian survey showing a relevant predictive power and relegating in a secondary position models which do not include, in the simulation, the presence of asymptomatic groups.

A study of SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology in Italy: from early days to secondary effects after social distancing.

Background: The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has led to 101,739 confirmed cases, in Italy, as of March 30th, 2020. While the analogous event in China appears to be under control at the moment, the outbreaks in western countries are still at an early stage of development. Italy, at present, is playing a major role in understanding the transmission dynamics of these new infections and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures in a western social context.