Strain variation and anomalous climate synergistically influence cholera pandemics.

Background: Explanations for the genesis and propagation of cholera pandemics since 1817 have remained elusive. Evolutionary pathogen change is presumed to have been a dominant factor behind the 7th "El Tor" pandemic, but little is known to support this hypothesis for preceding pandemics. The role of anomalous climate in facilitating strain replacements has never been assessed.

Cholera forecast for Dhaka, Bangladesh, with the 2015-2016 El Niño: Lessons learned.

A substantial body of work supports a teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and cholera incidence in Bangladesh. In particular, high positive anomalies during the winter (Dec-Feb) in sea surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific have been shown to exacerbate the seasonal outbreak of cholera following the monsoons from August to November. Climate studies have indicated a role of regional precipitation over Bangladesh in mediating this long-distance effect.

Predictability of epidemic malaria under non-stationary conditions with process-based models combining epidemiological updates and climate variability.

Background: Previous studies have demonstrated the feasibility of early-warning systems for epidemic malaria informed by climate variability. Whereas modelling approaches typically assume stationary conditions, epidemiological systems are characterized by changes in intervention measures over time, at scales typically longer than inter-epidemic periods. These trends in control efforts preclude simple application of early-warning systems validated by retrospective surveillance data; their effects are also difficult to distinguish from those of climate variability itself.

Seasonality in the migration and establishment of H3N2 Influenza lineages with epidemic growth and decline.

Background: Influenza A/H3N2 has been circulating in humans since 1968, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. Although H3N2 incidence is highly seasonal, how such seasonality contributes to global phylogeographic migration dynamics has not yet been established. In this study, we incorporate time-varying migration rates in a Bayesian MCMC framework.

Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire.

Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939).

The potential elimination of Plasmodium vivax malaria by relapse treatment: insights from a transmission model and surveillance data from NW India.

Background: With over a hundred million annual infections and rising morbidity and mortality, Plasmodium vivax malaria remains largely a neglected disease. In particular, the dependence of this malaria species on relapses and the potential significance of the dormant stage as a therapeutic target, are poorly understood.

Methodology/principal Findings: To quantify relapse parameters and assess the population-wide consequences of anti-relapse treatment, we formulated a transmission model for P.

Simple models for complex systems: exploiting the relationship between local and global densities.

Simple temporal models that ignore the spatial nature of interactions and track only changes in mean quantities, such as global densities, are typically used under the unrealistic assumption that individuals are well mixed. These so-called mean-field models are often considered overly simplified, given the ample evidence for distributed interactions and spatial heterogeneity over broad ranges of scales. Here, we present one reason why such simple population models may work even when mass-action assumptions do not hold: spatial structure is present but it relates to global densities in a special way.

Robust scaling in ecosystems and the meltdown of patch size distributions before extinction.

Robust critical systems are characterized by power laws which occur over a broad range of conditions. Their robust behaviour has been explained by local interactions. While such systems could be widespread in nature, their properties are not well understood.

Trophic garnishes: cat-rat interactions in an urban environment.

Background: Community interactions can produce complex dynamics with counterintuitive responses. Synanthropic community members are of increasing practical interest for their effects on biodiversity and public health. Most studies incorporating introduced species have been performed on islands where they may pose a risk to the native fauna.

Generalizing Levins metapopulation model in explicit space: models of intermediate complexity.

A recent study [Harding and McNamara, 2002. A unifying framework for metapopulation dynamics. Am.

Effects of predation on host-pathogen dynamics in SIR models.

The integration of infectious disease epidemiology with community ecology is an active area of research. Recent studies using SI models without acquired immunity have demonstrated that predation can suppress infectious disease levels. The authors recently showed that incorporating immunity (SIR models) can produce a "hump"-shaped relationship between disease prevalence and predation pressure; thus, low to moderate levels of predation can boost prevalence in hosts with acquired immunity.

Predation can increase the prevalence of infectious disease.

Many host-pathogen interactions are embedded in a web of other interspecific interactions. Recent theoretical studies have suggested that reductions in predator abundance can indirectly lead to upsurges in infectious diseases harbored by prey populations. In this note, we use simple models to show that in some circumstances, predation can actually increase the equilibrial prevalence of infection in a host, where prevalence is defined as the fraction of host population that is infected.

Temporal autocorrelation can enhance the persistence and abundance of metapopulations comprised of coupled sinks.

In spatially heterogeneous landscapes, some habitats may be persistent sources, providing immigrants to sustain populations in unfavorable sink habitats (where extinction is inevitable without immigration). Recent theoretical and empirical studies of source-sink systems demonstrate that temporally variable local growth rates in sinks can substantially increase average abundance of a persisting population, provided that the variation is positively autocorrelated--in effect, temporal variation inflates average abundance. Here we extend these results to a metapopulation in which all habitat patches are sinks.

Competitive coexistence in a dynamic landscape.

This paper investigates the effect of a dynamic landscape on the persistence of many interacting species. We develop a multi-species community model with an evolving landscape in which the creation and destruction of habitat are dynamic and local in space. Species interactions are also local involving hierarchical competitive trade-offs.

Cluster size distributions: signatures of self-organization in spatial ecologies.

Three different lattice-based models for antagonistic ecological interactions, both nonlinear and stochastic, exhibit similar power-law scalings in the geometry of clusters. Specifically, cluster size distributions and perimeter-area curves follow power-law scalings. In the coexistence regime, these patterns are robust: their exponents, and therefore the associated Korcak exponent characterizing patchiness, depend only weakly on the parameters of the systems.