Tree mortality submodels drive simulated long-term forest dynamics: assessing 15 models from the stand to global scale.

Models are pivotal for assessing future forest dynamics under the impacts of changing climate and management practices, incorporating representations of tree growth, mortality, and regeneration. Quantitative studies on the importance of mortality submodels are scarce. We evaluated 15 dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) regarding their sensitivity to different formulations of tree mortality under different degrees of climate change.

Forest disturbances under climate change.

Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents.

Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?

Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g.

Selecting Populations for Non-Analogous Climate Conditions Using Universal Response Functions: The Case of Douglas-Fir in Central Europe.

Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe.

Potential stocks and increments of woody biomass in the European Union under different management and climate scenarios.

Background: Forests play an important role in the global carbon flow. They can store carbon and can also provide wood which can substitute other materials. In EU27 the standing biomass is steadily increasing.

Forest management under climatic and social uncertainty: trade-offs between reducing climate change impacts and fostering adaptive capacity.

The unabated continuation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of an international consensus on a stringent climate change mitigation policy underscore the importance of adaptation for coping with the all but inevitable changes in the climate system. Adaptation measures in forestry have particularly long lead times. A timely implementation is thus crucial for reducing the considerable climate vulnerability of forest ecosystems.

Modeling of nitrogen dynamics in an Austrian alpine forest ecosystem on calcareous soils: a scenario-based risk assessment under changing environmental conditions.

We modeled the behavior of an Austrian alpine forest ecosystem on calcareous soils under changing climate and atmospheric nitrogen deposition scenarios. The change of nitrate leaching, emission rates of nitrogen compounds, and forest productivity were calculated using four process-oriented models for the periods 1998-2002 and 2048-2052. Each model reflects with high detail a segment of the ecosystem: PnET-N-DNDC (photosynthesis-evapotranspiration-nitrification-denitrification-decomposition; short-term nitrogen cycling), BROOK90 (water balance for small and homogenous forest watersheds), HYDRUS (water flux in complex and heterogenous soils), and PICUS v1.

Evaluating the accuracy and generality of a hybrid patch model.

Forest patch models have been used extensively to simulate vegetation development under current and changing environmental conditions. However, their physiological foundation is subject to criticism and recent validation experiments against long-term growth and yield data have shown major deficiencies in reproducing observed growth patterns of mixed-species forests. Here we describe the modified forest patch model PICUS Version 1.