Effects of task structure and confirmation bias in alternative hypotheses evaluation.

We empirically examined the effectiveness of how the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) technique structures task information to help reduce confirmation bias (Study 1) and the portrayal of intelligence analysts as suffering from such bias (Study 2). Study 1 (N = 161) showed that individuals presented with hypotheses in rows and evidence items in columns were significantly less likely to demonstrate confirmation bias, whereas those presented with the ACH-style matrix (with hypotheses in columns and evidence items in rows) or a paragraph of text (listing the evidence for each hypothesis) were not less likely to demonstrate bias. The ACH-style matrix also did not confer any benefits regarding increasing sensitivity to evidence credibility.

Representative design: A realistic alternative to (systematic) integrative design.

We disagree with Almaatouq et al. that no realistic alternative exists to the "one-at-a-time" paradigm. Seventy years ago, Egon Brunswik introduced , which offers a clear path to commensurability and generality.

On conducting ethically sound psychological science in the metaverse.

As the next generation of the internet, the metaverse is an immersive three-dimensional (3D) world that incorporates both physical and virtual environments. The metaverse affords numerous advantages for advancing our theoretical and practical understanding of human cognition, emotion, and behavior, as well as shaping our methodological approach to conducting psychological science. However, undertaking research in a world that merges the physical and virtual, also presents new and unique ethical challenges that are not addressed by current ethical guidelines such as the Belmont Report, the Ethical Principles of Psychologists and Code of Conduct, and the Association of Internet Researchers Internet Research Ethical Guidelines.

Health, Wellbeing, and Social Interaction: An International and Demographic Analysis of Perceived Life Changes and the Positives and Negatives of the COVID-19 Lockdown.

Research suggests that people's experiences of COVID-19 lockdowns have been detrimental to their lives and wellbeing. The current research compared the experiences and perceptions on health, wellbeing and social interaction of 300 UK adults and 450 adults in California. Individuals reported whether aspects of their life had changed for the better, worse, or not at all during lockdown in April 2020, and what the "best" and "worst" things about lockdown were.

A Multi-disciplinary and Comparative Approach to Evaluating Pre-trial Detention Decisions: Towards Evidence-Based Reform.

The decision to remand a defendant into custody pre-trial is one of the most controversial criminal justice decisions because it deprives individuals of their liberty while they are presumed to be innocent of a crime. Indeed, pre-trial detention decisions can have significant consequences for defendants, which need to be balanced against the potential implications of bail for public safety and the course of criminal proceedings. Despite this, court-based bail and remand decision-making remains relatively underexplored.

Communicating uncertainty using words and numbers.

Life in an increasingly information-rich but highly uncertain world calls for an effective means of communicating uncertainty to a range of audiences. Senders prefer to convey uncertainty using verbal (e.g.

Are People Experiencing the 'Pains of Imprisonment' During the COVID-19 Lockdown?

Background: By the end of March 2020, more than a fifth of the world's population was in various degrees of "lockdown" in order to slow the spread of COVID-19. This enforced confinement led some to liken lockdown to imprisonment. We directly compared individual's experiences of lockdown with prisoners' experiences of imprisonment in order to determine whether psychological parallels can be drawn between these two forms of confinement.

Words or numbers? Communicating probability in intelligence analysis.

Intelligence analysis is fundamentally an exercise in expert judgment made under conditions of uncertainty. These judgments are used to inform consequential decisions. Following the major intelligence failure that led to the 2003 war in Iraq, intelligence organizations implemented policies for communicating probability in their assessments.

Factors predicting conviction in child stranger rape.

Background: Public knowledge of child stranger rape is shaped largely by media portrayals of a small number of cases, often marked by sensational trials, which may result in juror misconceptions of this offense. It is important to understand the factors that may influence jury verdicts in order to maximize the chance of guilty defendants being convicted.

Objective: The aim is to explore the factors that predict juries' decisions to convict or acquit in child stranger rape cases.

Factors Predicting Conviction in Stranger Rape Cases.

Despite there being no legal distinction between different types of rapes (e.g., those committed by strangers to the victim versus those committed by perpetrators known to the victim), stereotypical beliefs about rape have meant that these can be treated differently by the justice system.

A re-examination of the acquittal biasing effect of offence seriousness.

The justice system should operate free of bias, and jurors' judgements of a defendant's guilt should be based on evidential factors alone. However, research suggests that this is not always the case. The aim of this study is to investigate the biasing effect of offence seriousness - a case-related, extralegal factor - on juror decision-making.

Male Youth Perceptions of Violent Extremism: towards a Test of Rational Choice Theory.

Understanding how people perceive the pros and cons of risky behaviors such as terrorism or violent extremism represents a first step in developing research testing rational choice theory aiming to explain and predict peoples' intentions to engage in, or support, these behaviors. Accordingly, the present study provides a qualitative, exploratory analysis of a sample of 57 male youths' perceptions of the benefits and drawbacks of: (a) accessing a violent extremist website, (b) joining a violent extremist group, and (c) leaving such a group. Youth perceived significantly more drawbacks than benefits of joining a violent extremist group (p = .

Improving Intelligence Analysis With Decision Science.

Intelligence analysis plays a vital role in policy decision making. Key functions of intelligence analysis include accurately forecasting significant events, appropriately characterizing the uncertainties inherent in such forecasts, and effectively communicating those probabilistic forecasts to stakeholders. We review decision research on probabilistic forecasting and uncertainty communication, drawing attention to findings that could be used to reform intelligence processes and contribute to more effective intelligence oversight.

On avoiding framing effects in experienced decision makers.

The present study aimed to (a) demonstrate the effect of positive-negative framing on experienced criminal justice decision makers, (b) examine the debiasing effect of visually structured risk messages, and (c) investigate whether risk perceptions mediate the debiasing effect of visual aids on decision making. In two phases, 60 senior police officers estimated the accuracy of a counterterrorism technique in identifying whether a known terror suspect poses an imminent danger and decided whether they would recommend the technique to policy makers. Officers also rated their confidence in this recommendation.

Spanish young adults' perceptions of the costs and benefits of risky driving behaviors.

We used an open-ended survey to elicit Spanish young adults' perceptions of the benefits and drawbacks of speeding and not wearing a seatbelt (or helmet). Around half of the sample reported past engagement in these two risky behaviors, although forecasted engagement was low. Past and forecasted risk taking were positively correlated.

Canadian and Spanish youths' risk perceptions of drinking and driving, and riding with a drunk driver.

The present research compared Canadian and Spanish youths' perceptions of the potential benefits and drawbacks of driving under the influence of alcohol (DUI) and riding with a drunk driver (RDD). Eighty (41 female) Canadian and 87 (71 female) Spanish undergraduates completed a survey asking about their past and forecasted engagement in DUI and RDD, and their perceptions of the benefits and drawbacks of DUI and RDD. A sizeable proportion of both samples reported DUI and RDD in the past year.

Pictures speak louder than numbers: on communicating medical risks to immigrants with limited non-native language proficiency.

Background And Objectives: Medical risk communication has been infrequently studied in immigrants with limited non-native language proficiency, even though they may be at greatest risk of illness. In a study, we examined to what extent Polish immigrants to the UK have difficulties in understanding treatment risk reduction expressed as ratios either in their native language or in a non-native language (English). We further investigated whether this population can be aided by using visual displays to enhance comprehension.

Simply criminal: predicting burglars' occupancy decisions with a simple heuristic.

Rational choice theories of criminal decision making assume that offenders weight and integrate multiple cues when making decisions (i.e., are compensatory).

Exploring methods to investigate sentencing decisions.

The determinants of sentencing are of much interest in criminal justice and legal research. Understanding the determinants of sentencing decisions is important for ensuring transparent, consistent, and justifiable sentencing practice that adheres to the goals of sentencing, such as the punishment, rehabilitation, deterrence, and incapacitation of the offender, as well as reparation for the victim. It is important to frame research questions on sentencing that can feasibly be answered by appropriate research methods, within the constraints of limited time and resources.

Effects of offenders' age and health on sentencing decisions.

Two experiments investigated the effects of age and health on mock judges' sentencing decisions. The effects of these variables on length of prison sentence were examined in the context of offense severity and prior convictions. Experiment 1 involved a violent crime.

[Differences between experts and novices in estimations of cue predictive power in crime].

In this study, we compared experts' and novices' estimates of the power of several cues to predict residential burglary. Participants were experienced police officers and burglars, and graduates with no experience in this domain. They all estimated the weight of each cue in predicting the likelihood of a property being burgled.

Take-the-best in expert-novice decision strategies for residential burglary.

We examined the decision strategies and cue use of experts and novices in a consequential domain: crime. Three participant groups decided which of two residential properties was more likely to be burgled, on the basis of eight cues such as location of the property. The two expert groups were experienced burglars and police officers, and the novice group was composed of graduate students.

On measuring quantitative interpretations of reasonable doubt.

Beyond reasonable doubt represents a probability value that acts as the criterion for conviction in criminal trials. I introduce the membership function (MF) method as a new tool for measuring quantitative interpretations of reasonable doubt. Experiment 1 demonstrated that three different methods (i.

Prisoners' positive illusions of their post-release success.

Prisoners' forecasts of post-release success may have implications for how they respond to imprisonment, release, and parole decisions. We examined sentenced US and UK prisoners' forecasts of recidivism, and how well UK prisoners believed they would fare compared to the average other prisoner. In both samples, forecasts of recidivism were unrealistically optimistic when compared to official statistics on recidivism.