Publications by authors named "Mahmoud H Hammad"
Three simple approaches to forecast the COVID-19 epidemic in Jordan were previously proposed by Hussein, et al.: a short-term forecast (STF) based on a linear forecast model with a learning database on the reported cases in the previous 5-40 days, a long-term forecast (LTF) based on a mathematical formula that describes the COVID-19 pandemic situation, and a hybrid forecast (HF), which merges the STF and the LTF models. With the emergence of the OMICRON variant, the LTF failed to forecast the pandemic due to vital reasons related to the infection rate and the speed of the OMICRON variant, which is faster than the previous variants.
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- The study proposes three forecasting approaches for COVID-19 cases in Jordan: a short-term forecast (STF) model using past data, a long-term forecast (LTF) model employing a mathematical formula, and a hybrid forecast (HF) model that combines both STF and LTF for improved accuracy.
- The STF model is useful for addressing sudden daily changes, while the LTF model helps predict future pandemic waves and their intensity.
- Findings suggest that early curfews and lockdowns were effective in controlling a major wave in April 2020, and vaccination efforts have successfully reduced infection rates, but a potential third wave could occur in Summer 2021.