Challenges with Forecasting Budget Impact: A Case Study of Six ICER Reports.

Background: Payers frequently rely on budget impact model (BIM) results to help determine drug coverage policy and its effect on their bottom line. It is unclear whether BIMs typically overestimate or underestimate real-world budget impact.

Objective: We examined how different modeling assumptions influenced the results of 6 BIMs from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER).

The Option Value of Innovative Treatments for Metastatic Melanoma.

Background Treatment options in oncology have increased in recent years due to the quick pace of innovation. In the cancer care landscape, therapies that enable patients to live to the next innovation have additional value, "option value," from the benefit of surviving to the next innovation. In such disease areas, providers and payers should consider this value when gauging the value of new therapies.

The Economic Burden of ACPA-Positive Status Among Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis.

Background: Anticitrullinated protein antibodies (ACPAs) are serological biomarkers associated with early, rapidly progressing rheumatoid arthritis (RA), including more severe disease and joint damage. ACPA testing has become a routine tool for RA diagnosis and prognosis. Furthermore, treatment efficacy has been shown to vary by ACPA-positive status.

The option value of innovative treatments for non-small cell lung cancer and renal cell carcinoma.

Objectives: To develop a model of the option value a therapy provides by enabling patients to live to see subsequent innovations and to apply the model to the case of nivolumab in renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

Study Design: A model of the option value of nivolumab in RCC and NSCLC was developed and estimated.

Methods: Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cancer registry and published clinical trial results were used to estimate survival curves for metastatic cancer patients with RCC, squamous NSCLC, or nonsquamous NSCLC.