Nesting Synchrony and Clutch Size in Migratory Birds: Capital versus Income Breeding Determines Responses to Variable Spring Onset.

AbstractSynchronous reproduction of birds has often been explained by benefits from nesting together, but this concept fails to explain observed intraspecific variation and climate-mediated changes of breeding synchrony. Here, we present a theoretical model of birds that store resources for reproduction (capital breeders) to show how breeding synchrony, clutch size, and offspring recruitment respond to changes in timing of first possible breeding date. Our approach is based on individual fitness maximization when both prebreeding foraging and offspring development are time constrained.

Context-dependent fitness costs of reproduction despite stable body mass costs in an Arctic herbivore.

The cost of reproduction on demographic rates is often assumed to operate through changing body condition. Several studies have found that reproduction depresses body mass more if the current conditions are severe, such as high population densities or adverse weather, than under benign environmental conditions. However, few studies have investigated the association between the fitness components and body mass costs of reproduction.

The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer.

Arctic ungulates are experiencing the most rapid climate warming on Earth. While concerns have been raised that more frequent icing events may cause die-offs, and earlier springs may generate a trophic mismatch in phenology, the effects of warming autumns have been largely neglected. We used 25 years of individual-based data from a growing population of wild Svalbard reindeer, to test how warmer autumns enhance population growth.

High Arctic ecosystem states: Conceptual models of vegetation change to guide long-term monitoring and research.

Vegetation change has consequences for terrestrial ecosystem structure and functioning and may involve climate feedbacks. Hence, when monitoring ecosystem states and changes thereof, the vegetation is often a primary monitoring target. Here, we summarize current understanding of vegetation change in the High Arctic-the World's most rapidly warming region-in the context of ecosystem monitoring.

Silver spoon effects are constrained under extreme adult environmental conditions.

Early-life environmental conditions may generate cohort differences in individual fitness, subsequently affecting population growth rates. Three, nonmutually exclusive hypotheses predict the nature of these fitness differences: (1) silver spoon effects, where individuals born in good conditions perform better across the range of adult environments; (2) the "environmental saturation" hypothesis, where fitness differences only occur in intermediate adult environmental conditions; and (3) the "environmental matching" or "predictive adaptive response" (PAR) hypothesis, where fitness is highest when adult environmental conditions match those experienced in early life. We quantified the context-dependent effect of early-life environment on subsequent reproductive success, survival, and population growth rate (λ) of Svalbard reindeer, and explored how well it was explained by the three hypotheses.

Sea-ice induced growth decline in Arctic shrubs.

Measures of increased tundra plant productivity have been associated with the accelerating retreat of the Arctic sea-ice. Emerging studies document opposite effects, advocating for a more complex relationship between the shrinking sea-ice and terrestrial plant productivity. I introduce an autoregressive plant growth model integrating effects of biological and climatic conditions for analysing individual ring-width growth time series.

Behavioral Timing without Clockwork: Photoperiod-Dependent Trade-Off between Predation Hazard and Energy Balance in an Arctic Ungulate.

Occurrence of 24-h rhythms in species apparently lacking functional molecular clockwork indicates that strong circadian mechanisms are not essential prerequisites of robust timing, and that rhythmical patterns may arise instead as passive responses to periodically changing environmental stimuli. Thus, in a new synthesis of grazing in a ruminant (MINDY), crepuscular peaks of activity emerge from interactions between internal and external stimuli that influence motivation to feed, and the influence of the light/dark cycle is mediated through the effect of low nocturnal levels of food intake on gastric function. Drawing on risk allocation theory, we hypothesized that the timing of behavior in ruminants is influenced by the independent effects of light on motivation to feed and perceived risk of predation.

Phenological mismatch with abiotic conditions implications for flowering in Arctic plants.

Although many studies have examined the phenological mismatches between interacting organisms, few have addressed the potential for mismatches between phenology and seasonal weather conditions. In the Arctic, rapid phenological changes in many taxa are occurring in association with earlier snowmelt. The timing of snowmelt is jointly affected by the size of the late winter snowpack and the temperature during the spring thaw.

Response of an arctic predator guild to collapsing lemming cycles.

Alpine and arctic lemming populations appear to be highly sensitive to climate change, and when faced with warmer and shorter winters, their well-known high-amplitude population cycles may collapse. Being keystone species in tundra ecosystems, changed lemming dynamics may convey significant knock-on effects on trophically linked species. Here, we analyse long-term (1988-2010), community-wide monitoring data from two sites in high-arctic Greenland and document how a collapse in collared lemming cyclicity affects the population dynamics of the predator guild.

The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling.

Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations.

Background: The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra).

Ecological dynamics across the Arctic associated with recent climate change.

At the close of the Fourth International Polar Year, we take stock of the ecological consequences of recent climate change in the Arctic, focusing on effects at population, community, and ecosystem scales. Despite the buffering effect of landscape heterogeneity, Arctic ecosystems and the trophic relationships that structure them have been severely perturbed. These rapid changes may be a bellwether of changes to come at lower latitudes and have the potential to affect ecosystem services related to natural resources, food production, climate regulation, and cultural integrity.

The effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of four animal species in a Danish landscape.

Background: Variation in carrying capacity and population return rates is generally ignored in traditional studies of population dynamics. Variation is hard to study in the field because of difficulties controlling the environment in order to obtain statistical replicates, and because of the scale and expense of experimenting on populations. There may also be ethical issues.

Predation and fragmentation portrayed in the statistical structure of prey time series.

Background: Statistical autoregressive analyses of direct and delayed density dependence are widespread in ecological research. The models suggest that changes in ecological factors affecting density dependence, like predation and landscape heterogeneity are directly portrayed in the first and second order autoregressive parameters, and the models are therefore used to decipher complex biological patterns. However, independent tests of model predictions are complicated by the inherent variability of natural populations, where differences in landscape structure, climate or species composition prevent controlled repeated analyses.

Nonlinear effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a fluctuating population of reindeer.

Nonlinear and irregular population dynamics may arise as a result of phase dependence and coexistence of multiple attractors. Here we explore effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a highly fluctuating population of wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) on Svalbard observed over a period of 29 years. Time series analyses revealed that density dependence and the effects of local climate (measured as the degree of ablation [melting] of snow during winter) on numbers were both highly nonlinear: direct negative density dependence was found when the population was growing (Rt > 0) and during phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) characterized by winters with generally high (1979-1995) and low (1996-2007) indices, respectively.

Warming, plant phenology and the spatial dimension of trophic mismatch for large herbivores.

Temporal advancement of resource availability by warming in seasonal environments can reduce reproductive success of vertebrates if their own reproductive phenology does not also advance with warming. Indirect evidence from large-scale analyses suggests, however, that migratory vertebrates might compensate for this by tracking phenological variation across landscapes. Results from our two-year warming experiment combined with seven years of observations of plant phenology and offspring production by caribou (Rangifer tarandus) in Greenland, however, contradict evidence from large-scale analyses.

The influence of weather conditions on the activity of high-arctic arthropods inferred from long-term observations.

Background: Climate change is particularly pronounced in the High Arctic and a better understanding of the repercussions on ecological processes like herbivory, predation and pollination is needed. Arthropods play an important role in the high-arctic ecosystem and this role is determined by their density and activity. However, density and activity may be sensitive to separate components of climate.

Phenological sequences reveal aggregate life history response to climatic warming.

Climatic warming is associated with organisms breeding earlier in the season than is typical for their species. In some species, however, response to warming is more complex than a simple advance in the timing of all life history events preceding reproduction. Disparities in the extent to which different components of the reproductive phenology of organisms vary with climatic warming indicate that not all life history events are equally responsive to environmental variation.

Climate change reduces reproductive success of an Arctic herbivore through trophic mismatch.

In highly seasonal environments, offspring production by vertebrates is timed to coincide with the annual peak of resource availability. For herbivores, this resource peak is represented by the annual onset and progression of the plant growth season. As plant phenology advances in response to climatic warming, there is potential for development of a mismatch between the peak of resource demands by reproducing herbivores and the peak of resource availability.

Inter-annual growth of Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus, L.) in relation to climate variation.

Background: Major changes in climate have been observed in the Arctic and climate models predict further amplification of the enhanced greenhouse effect at high-latitudes leading to increased warming. We propose that warming in the Arctic may affect the annual growth conditions of the cold adapted Arctic charr and that such effects can already be detected retrospectrally using otolith data.

Results: Inter-annual growth of the circumpolar Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus, L.

Long-term patterns in European brown hare population dynamics in Denmark: effects of agriculture, predation and climate.

Background: In Denmark and many other European countries, harvest records suggest a marked decline in European brown hare numbers, a decline often attributed to the agricultural practice. In the present study, we analyse the association between agricultural land-use, predator abundance and winter severity on the number of European brown hares harvested in Denmark in the years 1955 through 2000.

Results: Winter cereals had a significant negative association with European brown hare numbers.

Spatial synchrony of local populations has increased in association with the recent Northern Hemisphere climate trend.

According to ecological theory, populations whose dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation face increased extinction risk as environmental conditions become more synchronized spatially. This prediction is highly relevant to the study of ecological consequences of climate change. Recent empirical studies have indicated, for example, that large-scale climate synchronizes trophic interactions and population dynamics over broad spatial scales in freshwater and terrestrial systems.

Synchronization of animal population dynamics by large-scale climate.

The hypothesis that animal population dynamics may be synchronized by climate is highly relevant in the context of climate change because it suggests that several populations might respond simultaneously to climatic trends if their dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation. The dynamics of many species throughout the Northern Hemisphere are influenced by a single large-scale climate system, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which exerts highly correlated regional effects on local weather. But efforts to attribute synchronous fluctuations of contiguous populations to large-scale climate are confounded by the synchronizing influences of dispersal or trophic interactions.

Extrinsic Modification of Vertebrate Sex Ratios by Climatic Variation.

Evidence for the influences of climate on early development, maternal condition, and offspring viability in terrestrial vertebrates suggests that climatic change has the potential to induce variation in offspring sex ratios in such organisms. Using long-term data at individual and population levels, we investigated the influence of global climatic variation, as a result of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), on offspring sex ratios of red deer in Norway. The state of the NAO during the fetal development of hinds influenced the mass of their sons, but not daughters, and increasingly warmer and snowy winters led to increasingly male-biased offspring sex ratios, independently of changes in the mean age of hinds.