Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org).

Hepatitis C Elimination in Rwanda: Progress, Feasibility, and Economic Evaluation.

Objectives: In 2018, Rwanda launched a national program to eliminate the hepatitis C virus (HCV). We aim to assess the impact of the program to date and identify strategies to achieve the World Health Organization's HCV elimination goals by 2030.

Methods: We developed a microsimulation model to simulate Rwanda's HCV epidemic from 2015 through 2050 and evaluated temporal trends in HCV infection, prevalence, mortality, and the total cost of care for scenarios that could achieve HCV elimination by 2030.

Hepatitis C Elimination in Moldova Is Feasible and Cost-Saving: A Modeling Study.

Background: Moldova, an upper-middle-income country in Eastern Europe, is facing a high burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Our objective was to assist the National Agency of Public Health of Moldova in planning to achieve the World Health Organization's HCV elimination goals by 2030.

Methods: This study adapted a previously developed microsimulation model to simulate the HCV epidemic in Moldova from 2004 to 2050.

Estimated Reductions in Opioid Overdose Deaths With Sustainment of Public Health Interventions in 4 US States.

Importance: In 2021, more than 80 000 US residents died from an opioid overdose. Public health intervention initiatives, such as the Helping to End Addiction Long-term (HEALing) Communities Study (HCS), are being launched with the goal of reducing opioid-related overdose deaths (OODs).

Objective: To estimate the change in the projected number of OODs under different scenarios of the duration of sustainment of interventions, compared with the status quo.

Projecting COVID-19 Mortality as States Relax Nonpharmacologic Interventions.

Importance: A key question for policy makers and the public is what to expect from the COVID-19 pandemic going forward as states lift nonpharmacologic interventions (NPIs), such as indoor mask mandates, to prevent COVID-19 transmission.

Objective: To project COVID-19 deaths between March 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022, in each of the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico assuming different dates of lifting of mask mandates and NPIs.

Design Setting And Participants: This simulation modeling study used the COVID-19 Policy Simulator compartmental model to project COVID-19 deaths from March 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022, using simulated populations in the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico.

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Core Antigen-Based Rapid Diagnostic Test for Hepatitis C.

Objectives: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) affects 58 million worldwide and > 79% of people remain undiagnosed. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for HCV can help improve diagnosis and treatment rates. Nevertheless, the high price and infrastructure needed to use current molecular HCV RDT options present a barrier to widespread use-particularly in low- and middle-income countries.

Assessing the impact of simplified HCV care on linkage to care amongst high-risk patients at primary healthcare clinics in Malaysia: a prospective observational study.

Introduction: To achieve the elimination of hepatitis C virus (HCV), substantial scale-up in access to testing and treatment is needed. This will require innovation and simplification of the care pathway, through decentralisation of testing and treatment to primary care settings and task-shifting to non-specialists. The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of decentralisation of HCV testing and treatment using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) in primary healthcare clinics (PHCs) among high-risk populations, with referral of seropositive patients for confirmatory viral load testing and treatment.

Feasibility, effectiveness and cost of a decentralized HCV care model among the general population in Delhi, India.

Background And Aims: India has a significant burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and has committed to achieving national elimination by 2030. This will require a substantial scale-up in testing and treatment. The "HEAD-Start Project Delhi" aimed to enhance HCV diagnosis and treatment pathways among the general population.

Assessing cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C testing pathways in Georgia using the Hep C Testing Calculator.

The cost of testing can be a substantial contributor to hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination program costs in many low- and middle-income countries such as Georgia, resulting in the need for innovative and cost-effective strategies for testing. Our objective was to investigate the most cost-effective testing pathways for scaling-up HCV testing in Georgia. We developed a Markov-based model with a lifetime horizon that simulates the natural history of HCV, and the cost of detection and treatment of HCV.

Costs and Consequences of Eliminating a Routine, Point-Of-Care HIV Screening Program in a High-Prevalence Jail.

Introduction: This study aims to assess the public health impact of eliminating a longstanding routine HIV screening program and replacing it with targeted testing. In addition, costs, outcomes, and cost effectiveness of routine screening are compared with those of targeted testing in the Fulton County Jail, Atlanta, Georgia.

Methods: A published mathematical model was used to assess the cost effectiveness and public health impact of routine screening (March 2013-February 2014) compared with those of targeted testing (January 2018-December 2018) from a health system perspective.

Assessment of Incidence of and Surveillance Burden for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Among Patients With Hepatitis C in the Era of Direct-Acting Antiviral Agents.

Importance: In the US, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), primarily associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, is the fastest rising cause of cancer-related death. Wider use of highly effective direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) substantially reduces the burden of chronic HCV infection, but the subsequent impacts with HCV-associated HCC remain unknown.

Objective: To assess projected changes in the incidence rate of and surveillance burden for HCC in the era of DAA treatment for HCV.

Assessment and Comparison of Hepatitis C Viremia in the Prison Systems of New Mexico and Georgia.

This cross-sectional study assesses and compares the prevalence of hepatitis C virus among criminal justice populations in New Mexico, a state with high hepatitis C virus prevalence, and Georgia, a state with low hepatitis C virus prevalence.

Funding Hepatitis C Treatment in Correctional Facilities by Using a Nominal Pricing Mechanism.

The cost of treating all incarcerated people who have hepatitis C with direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) greatly stresses correctional facility budgets. Complex federal laws bar pharmaceutical companies from simply discounting expensive medications to prices that facilities can afford. This article discusses means by which correctional facilities may qualify under federal law as "safety-net providers" to allow sale of DAAs at a price <10% of the average manufacturer price (AMP).

Five Questions Concerning Managing Hepatitis C in the Justice System: Finding Practical Solutions for Hepatitis C Virus Elimination.

An estimated 30% of Americans with hepatitis C virus (HCV) pass through a jail or prison annually. One in 7 incarcerated persons is viremic. Screening and treatment is cost-effective and beneficial to society as a whole.