Insufficient and biased representation of species geographic responses to climate change.

The geographic redistributions of species due to a rapidly changing climate are poised to perturb ecological communities and significantly impact ecosystems and human livelihoods. Effectively managing these biological impacts requires a thorough understanding of the patterns and processes of species geographic range shifts. While substantial recent redistributions have been identified and recognized to vary by taxon, region, and range geometry, there are large gaps and biases in the available evidence.

Bringing traits back into the equation: A roadmap to understand species redistribution.

Ecological and evolutionary theories have proposed that species traits should be important in mediating species responses to contemporary climate change; yet, empirical evidence has so far provided mixed evidence for the role of behavioral, life history, or ecological characteristics in facilitating or hindering species range shifts. As such, the utility of trait-based approaches to predict species redistribution under climate change has been called into question. We develop the perspective, supported by evidence, that trait variation, if used carefully can have high potential utility, but that past analyses have in many cases failed to identify an explanatory value for traits by not fully embracing the complexity of species range shifts.

Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts.

Background: Among the most widely predicted climate change-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution to track their climate niches. A series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged in the scientific literature suggesting species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to rising temperatures associated with climate change. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these expectations.

Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States.

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S.

Integrating broad-scale data to assess demographic and climatic contributions to population change in a declining songbird.

Climate variation and trends affect species distribution and abundance across large spatial extents. However, most studies that predict species response to climate are implemented at small spatial scales or are based on occurrence-environment relationships that lack mechanistic detail. Here, we develop an integrated population model (IPM) for multi-site count and capture-recapture data for a declining migratory songbird, Wilson's warbler (), in three genetically distinct breeding populations in western North America.

Relative contribution of climate and non-climate drivers in determining dynamic rates of boreal birds at the edge of their range.

The Adirondack Park in New York State contains a unique and limited distribution of boreal ecosystem types, providing habitat for a number of birds at the southern edge of their range. Species are projected to shift poleward in a warming climate, and the limited boreal forest of the Adirondacks is expected to undergo significant change in response to rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. Here we expand upon a previous analysis to examine changes in occupancy patterns for eight species of boreal birds over a decade (2007-2016), and we assess the relative contribution of climate and non-climate drivers in determining colonization and extinction rates.

Temporal changes in avian community composition in lowland conifer habitats at the southern edge of the boreal zone in the Adirondack Park, NY.

Climate change represents one of the most significant threats to human and wildlife communities on the planet. Populations at range margins or transitions between biomes can be particularly instructive for observing changes in biological communities that may be driven by climate change. Avian communities in lowland boreal habitats in the Adirondack Park, located at the North American boreal-temperate ecotone, have been the focus of long-term monitoring efforts since 2007.