Publications by authors named "M Z Koltai"
Background: Recently, several novel RSV immunisation products that protect infants and older adults against RSV disease have been licensed in Europe. We estimated the effectiveness and efficiency of introducing these RSV immunisation strategies in Germany.
Methods: We used a Bayesian framework to fit a deterministic age-structured dynamic transmission model of RSV to sentinel surveillance and RSV-specific hospitalisation data in Germany from 2015 to 2019.
Policymakers often rely on impact and cost-effectiveness evaluations to inform decisions about the introduction of health interventions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs); however, cost-effectiveness results for the same health intervention can differ by the choice of parameter inputs, modelling assumptions, and geography. Anticipating the near-term availability of new respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) prevention products, WHO convened a two-day virtual consultation in April 2022 with stakeholder groups and global experts in health economics, epidemiology, and vaccine implementation. The objective was to review methods, parameterization, and results of existing cost-effectiveness analyses for RSV prevention in LMICs; identify the most influential inputs and data limitations; and recommend and prioritize future data gathering and research to improve RSV prevention impact estimates in LMICs.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFBackground: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes a substantial burden of acute lower respiratory infection in children under 5 years, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Maternal vaccine (MV) and next-generation monoclonal antibody (mAb) candidates have been shown to reduce RSV disease in infants in phase 3 clinical trials. The cost-effectiveness of these biologics has been estimated using disease burden data from global meta-analyses, but these are sensitive to the detailed age breakdown of paediatric RSV disease, for which there have previously been limited data.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFArticle Synopsis
- - Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) significantly impacts infants with acute lower respiratory tract infections, and while there’s currently only one monoclonal antibody available, a new one called Nirsevimab has shown promising results in trials.
- - The study used a dynamic model to evaluate various Nirsevimab administration strategies, including seasonal and catch-up approaches, to determine their cost-effectiveness against the existing treatment, Palivizumab.
- - Nirsevimab would need to be priced at £63 or less per dose to cost-effectively replace Palivizumab for seasonal administration, with an extended seasonal approach being optimal at £32/dose or less, indicating its potential value beyond just high-risk infants in
Introduction: COVID-19 related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) led to a suppression of RSV circulation in winter 2020/21 in the UK and an off-season resurgence in Summer 2021. We explore how the parameters of RSV epidemiology shape the size and dynamics of post-suppression resurgence and what we can learn about them from the resurgence patterns observed so far.
Methods: We developed an age-structured dynamic transmission model of RSV and sampled the parameters governing RSV seasonality, infection susceptibility and post-infection immunity, retaining simulations fitting the UK's pre-pandemic epidemiology by a set of global criteria consistent with likelihood calculations.