Modeling the impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccines on the spread of COVID-19.

The continuous mutation of SARS-CoV-2 opens the possibility of the appearance of new variants of the virus with important differences in its spreading characteristics, mortality rates, etc. On 14 December 2020, the United Kingdom reported a potentially more contagious coronavirus variant, present in that country, which is referred to as VOC 202012/01. On 18 December 2020, the South African government also announced the emergence of a new variant in a scenario similar to that of the UK, which is referred to as variant 501.

A simple but complex enough -SIR type model to be used with COVID-19 real data. Application to the case of Italy.

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in China many models have appeared in the literature, trying to simulate its dynamics. Focusing on modeling the biological and sociological mechanisms which influence the disease spread, the basic reference example is the SIR model. However, it is too simple to be able to model those mechanisms (including the three main types of control measures: social distancing, contact tracing and health system measures) to fit real data and to simulate possible future scenarios.

Mathematical modeling of the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) taking into account the undetected infections. The case of China.

In this paper we develop a mathematical model for the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). It is a new -SEIHRD model (not a SIR, SEIR or other general purpose model), which takes into account the known special characteristics of this disease, as the existence of infectious undetected cases and the different sanitary and infectiousness conditions of hospitalized people. In particular, it includes a novel approach that considers the fraction of detected cases over the real total infected cases, which allows to study the importance of this ratio on the impact of COVID-19.

Mathematical model for path selection by ants between nest and food source.

Several models have been proposed to describe the behavior of ants when moving from nest to food sources. Most of these studies where based on numerical simulations with no mathematical justification. In this paper, we propose a mechanism for the formation of paths of minimal length between two points by a collection of individuals undergoing reinforced random walks taking into account not only the lengths of the paths but also the angles (connected to the preference of ants to move along straight lines).

From individual to collective dynamics in Argentine ants (Linepithema humile).

In this paper we propose a model for the formation of paths in Argentine ants when foraging in an empty arena. Based on experimental observations, we provide a distribution for the random change in direction that they approximately undergo while foraging as a mixture of a Gaussian and a Pareto distribution. By following the principles described in previous work, we consider persistence and reinforcement to create a model for the motion of ants in the plane.