Assessment of seasonal forecasting errors of the ECMWF system in the eastern Indian Ocean.

Unlabelled: The interannual variability of the Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean (EEIO) is highly relevant for the climate anomalies on adjacent continents and affects global teleconnection patterns. Yet, this is an area where seasonal forecasting systems exhibit large errors. Here we investigate the reasons for these errors in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system SEAS5 using tailored diagnostics and a series of numerical experiments.

Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill in 2-Year Global Reforecasts Over the 20th Century.

In order to explore temporal changes of predictability of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a novel set of global biennial climate reforecasts for the historical period 1901-2010 has been generated using a modern initialized coupled forecasting system. We find distinct periods of enhanced long-range skill at the beginning and at the end of the twentieth century, and an extended multi-decadal epoch of reduced skill during the 1930s-1950s. Once the forecast skill extends beyond the first spring barrier, the predictability limit is much enhanced and our results provide support for the feasibility of skillful ENSO forecasts up to 18 months.

The multiple hats of a Global Business Economist.

A Global Business Economist should look at the world as it is, not as it ought to be. We need to be mind-readers, anticipating questions to come and pre-emptively searching for answers. Global interactions are making economic analysis increasingly complex.

Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects.

Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects global climate on a wide range of time scales. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific is home to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Decadal variations and changes in the tropical Pacific, referred to here collectively as tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), also profoundly affect the climate system.

Observational Needs for Improving Ocean and Coupled Reanalysis, S2S Prediction, and Decadal Prediction.

Developments in observing system technologies and ocean data assimilation (DA) are symbiotic. New observation types lead to new DA methods and new DA methods, such as coupled DA, can change the value of existing observations or indicate where new observations can have greater utility for monitoring and prediction. Practitioners of DA are encouraged to make better use of observations that are already available, for example, taking advantage of strongly coupled DA so that ocean observations can be used to improve atmospheric analyses and vice versa.