Machine learning mathematical models for incidence estimation during pandemics.

Accurate estimates of the incidence of infectious diseases are key for the control of epidemics. However, healthcare systems are often unable to test the population exhaustively, especially when asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic cases are widespread; this leads to significant and systematic under-reporting of the real incidence. Here, we propose a machine learning approach to estimate the incidence of a pandemic in real-time, using reported cases and the overall test rate.

Harmonization of experimental procedures to assess mitochondrial respiration in human permeabilized skeletal muscle fibers.

Aim: High-resolution respirometry in human permeabilized muscle fibers is extensively used for analysis of mitochondrial adaptions to nutrition and exercise interventions, and is linked to athletic performance. However, the lack of standardization of experimental conditions limits quantitative inter- and intra-laboratory comparisons.

Methods: In our study, an international team of investigators measured mitochondrial respiration of permeabilized muscle fibers obtained from three biopsies (vastus lateralis) from the same healthy volunteer to avoid inter-individual variability.

Hyperedge prediction and the statistical mechanisms of higher-order and lower-order interactions in complex networks.

Complex networked systems often exhibit higher-order interactions, beyond dyadic interactions, which can dramatically alter their observed behavior. Consequently, understanding hypergraphs from a structural perspective has become increasingly important. Statistical, group-based inference approaches are well suited for unveiling the underlying community structure and predicting unobserved interactions.

Early-career factors largely determine the future impact of prominent researchers: evidence across eight scientific fields.

Can we help predict the future impact of researchers using early-career factors? We analyze early-career factors of the world's 100 most prominent researchers across 8 scientific fields and identify four key drivers in researchers' initial career: working at a top 25 ranked university, publishing a paper in a top 5 ranked journal, publishing most papers in top quartile (high-impact) journals and co-authoring with other prominent researchers in their field. We find that over 95% of prominent researchers across multiple fields had at least one of these four features in the first 5 years of their career. We find that the most prominent scientists who had an early career advantage in terms of citations and h-index are more likely to have had all four features, and that this advantage persists throughout their career after 10, 15 and 20 years.

Fundamental limits to learning closed-form mathematical models from data.

Given a finite and noisy dataset generated with a closed-form mathematical model, when is it possible to learn the true generating model from the data alone? This is the question we investigate here. We show that this model-learning problem displays a transition from a low-noise phase in which the true model can be learned, to a phase in which the observation noise is too high for the true model to be learned by any method. Both in the low-noise phase and in the high-noise phase, probabilistic model selection leads to optimal generalization to unseen data.