Predicting the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking in primary care: development and validation of a simple risk algorithm.

Background: Little is known about the risk of progressing to hazardous alcohol use in abstinent or low-risk drinkers.

Aim: To develop and validate a simple brief risk algorithm for the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking (HAD) over 12 months for use in primary care.

Design And Setting: Prospective cohort study in 32 health centres from six Spanish provinces, with evaluations at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months.

The risk for major depression conferred by childhood maltreatment is multiplied by BDNF and SERT genetic vulnerability: a replication study.

Background: There is limited evidence for a moderating role of both serotonin transporter (SERT) and brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) genes on the risk for major depression (MD) developing after childhood maltreatment. However, research on this topic remains inconclusive, and there is a lack of data from longitudinal studies with large and representative population samples. Our study aimed to clarify whether, in the presence of previous childhood maltreatment, individuals carrying low functional alleles for both SERT 5-HTTLPR and BDNF Val66Met polymorphisms had a higher risk for MD.

Predicting the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care attendees. The predictA-Spain study.

Background: There are no risk algorithms for the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care. We aimed to develop and validate internally a risk algorithm to predict the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months.

Methods: A prospective cohort study with evaluations at baseline, 6 and 12 months.

Predicting the onset of major depression in primary care: international validation of a risk prediction algorithm from Spain.

Background: The different incidence rates of, and risk factors for, depression in different countries argue for the need to have a specific risk algorithm for each country or a supranational risk algorithm. We aimed to develop and validate a predictD-Spain risk algorithm (PSRA) for the onset of major depression and to compare the performance of the PSRA with the predictD-Europe risk algorithm (PERA) in Spanish primary care.

Method: A prospective cohort study with evaluations at baseline, 6 and 12 months.

Psychosocial and sociodemographic predictors of attrition in a longitudinal study of major depression in primary care: the predictD-Spain study.

Background: Few data exist on the psychosocial factors associated with attrition in longitudinal surveys. This study was undertaken to determine psychosocial and sociodemographic predictors of attrition from a longitudinal study of the onset and persistence of episodes of major depression in primary care.

Methods: A systematic random sample of general practice attendees was recruited in seven Spanish provinces between October 2005 and February 2006.