Large impacts, past and future, of ozone-depleting substances on Brewer-Dobson circulation trends: A multi-model assessment.

Substantial increases in the atmospheric concentration of well-mixed greenhouse gases (notably CO), such as those projected to occur by the end of the 21st century under large radiative forcing scenarios, have long been known to cause an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) in climate models. More recently, however, several single-model studies have proposed that ozone-depleting substances might also be important drivers of BDC trends. As these studies were conducted with different forcings over different periods, it is difficult to combine them to obtain a robust quantitative picture of the relative importance of ozone-depleting substances as drivers of BDC trends.

Revisiting the mystery of recent stratospheric temperature trends.

Simulated stratospheric temperatures over the period 1979-2016 in models from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) are compared with recently updated and extended satellite observations. The multi-model mean global temperature trends over 1979- 2005 are -0.88 ± 0.

No Robust Evidence of Future Changes in Major Stratospheric Sudden Warmings: A Multi-model Assessment from CCMI.

Major stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Due to their relevance for the troposphere-stratosphere system, several previous studies have focused on their potential response to anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range of results have been reported, from a future increase in the frequency of SSWs to a decrease.

Skin cancer risks avoided by the Montreal Protocol--worldwide modeling integrating coupled climate-chemistry models with a risk model for UV.

The assessment model for ultraviolet radiation and risk "AMOUR" is applied to output from two chemistry-climate models (CCMs). Results from the UK Chemistry and Aerosols CCM are used to quantify the worldwide skin cancer risk avoided by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments: by the year 2030, two million cases of skin cancer have been prevented yearly, which is 14% fewer skin cancer cases per year. In the "World Avoided," excess skin cancer incidence will continue to grow dramatically after 2030.

Climate change and atmospheric chemistry: how will the stratospheric ozone layer develop?

The discovery of the ozone hole over Antarctica in 1985 was a surprise for science. For a few years the reasons of the ozone hole was speculated about. Soon it was obvious that predominant meteorological conditions led to a specific situation developing in this part of the atmosphere: Very low temperatures initiate chemical processes that at the end cause extreme ozone depletion at altitudes of between about 15 and 30 km.