Publications by authors named "M A Whittington"
Estimating a Drug's Price After Loss of Exclusivity as a Function of Its Cost of Goods Sold.
Appl Health Econ Health Policy
January 2025
Article Synopsis
- Many cost-effectiveness analyses of pharmaceuticals ignore future price changes that occur when generic competition enters, mainly due to uncertainty in estimating post-exclusivity prices.
- The study investigates whether a drug's post-loss-of-exclusivity price can be reliably estimated using its cost of goods sold (COGS) by analyzing manufacturer profit margins and engaging stakeholders.
- Results show that COGS were successfully estimated for 2168 drugs, with a median price of $0.10 per tablet/capsule, leading to a method to estimate future prices that could enhance cost-effectiveness evaluations.
This study argues that value assessment conducted from a societal perspective should rely on the Generalized Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (GCEA) framework proposed herein. Recently developed value assessment inventories - such as the Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness's "impact inventory" and International Society of Pharmacoeconomics Outcomes Research (ISPOR) "value flower" - aimed to more comprehensively capture the benefits and costs of new health technologies from a societal perspective. Nevertheless, application of broader value elements in practice has been limited in part because quantifying these elements can be complex, but also because there have been numerous methodological advances since these value inventories have been released (e.
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