Validating distribution models for twelve endemic bird species of tropical dry forest in western Mexico.

Considering the high biodiversity and conservation concerns of the tropical dry forest, this study aim is to predict and evaluate the potential and current distributions of twelve species of endemic birds which distribute along the western slope of Mexico. The main goal is to evaluate altogether different methods for predicting actual species distribution models (ADMs) of the twelve species including the identification of key environmental potential limiting factors. ADMs for twelve endemic Mexican birds were generated and validated by means of applying: (1) three widely used species niche modeling approaches (ENFA, Garp, and Maxent); (2) two thresholding methods, based on ROC curves and Kappa Index, for transforming continuous models to presence/absence (binary) models; (3) documented habitat-species associations for reducing species potential distribution models (PDMs); and (4) field occurrence data for validating final ADMs.

Species Richness and Abundance of Cerambycidae (Coleoptera) in Huatulco, Oaxaca, Mexico; Relationships with Phenological Changes in the Tropical Dry Forest.

Cerambycidae have an important ecological role in initiating the degradation process of dead wood, but few studies have evaluated Cerambycidae community attributes in relation to ecosystem phenology. We surveyed the cerambicid fauna of the tropical dry forest in Huatulco, Oaxaca, Mexico, and explored the relationship of Cerambycidae species richness and abundance with phenological changes in vegetation. We applied three collecting methods of light traps, direct collection, and Malaise traps to survey Cerambycidae throughout 2005.

Extinction risk from climate change.

Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'.

Predicting distributions of known and unknown reptile species in Madagascar.

Despite the importance of tropical biodiversity, informative species distributional data are seldom available for biogeographical study or setting conservation priorities. Modelling ecological niche distributions of species offers a potential solution; however, the utility of old locality data from museums, and of more recent remotely sensed satellite data, remains poorly explored, especially for rapidly changing tropical landscapes. Using 29 modern data sets of environmental land coverage and 621 chameleon occurrence localities from Madagascar (historical and recent), here we demonstrate a significant ability of our niche models in predicting species distribution.

Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios.

Global climates are changing rapidly, with unexpected consequences. Because elements of biodiversity respond intimately to climate as an important driving force of distributional limitation, distributional shifts and biodiversity losses are expected. Nevertheless, in spite of modelling efforts focused on single species or entire ecosystems, a few preliminary surveys of fauna-wide effects, and evidence of climate change-mediated shifts in several species, the likely effects of climate change on species' distributions remain little known, and fauna-wide or community-level effects are almost completely unexplored.