Using survey experiment pretesting to support future pandemic response.

The world could witness another pandemic on the scale of COVID-19 in the future, prompting calls for research into how social and behavioral science can better contribute to pandemic response, especially regarding public engagement and communication. Here, we conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of a familiar tool from social and behavioral science that could potentially increase the impact of public communication: survey experiments. Specifically, we analyze whether a public health campaign that pays for a survey experiment to pretest and choose between different messages for its public outreach has greater impact in expectation than an otherwise-identical campaign that does not.

Listening with generative models.

Perception has long been envisioned to use an internal model of the world to explain the causes of sensory signals. However, such accounts have historically not been testable, typically requiring intractable search through the space of possible explanations. Using auditory scenes as a case study, we leveraged contemporary computational tools to infer explanations of sounds in a candidate internal generative model of the auditory world (ecologically inspired audio synthesizers).

Quantifying the potential persuasive returns to political microtargeting.

Much concern has been raised about the power of political microtargeting to sway voters' opinions, influence elections, and undermine democracy. Yet little research has directly estimated the persuasive advantage of microtargeting over alternative campaign strategies. Here, we do so using two studies focused on U.

Emotion prediction as computation over a generative theory of mind.

From sparse descriptions of events, observers can make systematic and nuanced predictions of what emotions the people involved will experience. We propose a formal model of emotion prediction in the context of a public high-stakes social dilemma. This model uses inverse planning to infer a person's beliefs and preferences, including social preferences for equity and for maintaining a good reputation.