Publications by authors named "Luis Pericchi-Guerra"
A Bayesian Projection of the Total Fertility Rate of Puerto Rico: 2020-2050.
P R Health Sci J
September 2024
Article Synopsis
- The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Puerto Rico has plummeted to 0.9 children per woman, far below the replacement level of 2.1, which raises concerns about a significant population decline by 2050, potentially dropping to just over 2 million residents.
- Current projections by the U.S. Census Bureau and the UN predict TFRs may stabilize toward the replacement level, but these assumptions are considered unrealistic and unsupported by evidence.
- This research employs Bayesian Hierarchical Probabilistic Theory to offer a more accurate projection, suggesting Puerto Rico's TFR could be around 1.1 by 2050, indicating a population drop greater than earlier estimates.
It has been over 100 years since the discovery of one of the most fundamental statistical tests: the Student's test. However, reliable conventional and objective Bayesian procedures are still essential for routine practice. In this work, we proposed an objective and robust Bayesian approach for hypothesis testing for one-sample and two-sample mean comparisons when the assumption of equal variances holds.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFMinimum Bayes factors are commonly used to transform two-sided -values to lower bounds on the posterior probability of the null hypothesis, in particular the bound -e·p·log(p). This bound is easy to compute and explain; however, it does not behave as a Bayes factor. For example, it does not change with the sample size.
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