Estimating the propagation of both reported and undocumented COVID-19 cases in Spain: a panel data frontier approximation of epidemiological models.

We use a stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) approach to model the propagation of the COVID-19 epidemic across geographical areas. The proposed models permit reported and undocumented cases to be estimated, which is important as case counts are overwhelmingly believed to be undercounted. The models can be estimated using only epidemic-type data but are flexible enough to permit these reporting rates to vary across geographical cross-section units of observation.

How effective has the Spanish lockdown been to battle COVID-19? A spatial analysis of the coronavirus propagation across provinces.

This paper examines the propagation of COVID-19 across the Spanish provinces and assesses the effectiveness of the Spanish lockdown of the population implemented on March 14, 2020 in order to battle this pandemic. To achieve these objectives, a standard spatial econometric model used in economics is adapted to resemble the popular reproduction models employed in the epidemiological literature. In addition, we introduce a counterfactual exercise that allows us to examine the Gross domestic product (GDP) gains of bringing forward the date of the Spanish Lockdown.