Evaluation of the impact of heat on wheat dormancy, late maturity α-amylase and grain size under controlled conditions in diverse germplasm.

In the Australian wheat belts, short episodes of high temperatures or hot spells during grain filling are becoming increasingly common and have an enormous impact on yield and quality, bringing multi-billion losses annually. This problem will become recurrent under the climate change scenario that forecast increasing extreme temperatures, but so far, no systematic analysis of the resistance to hot spells has yet been performed in a diverse genetic background. We developed a protocol to study the effects of heat on three important traits: grain size, grain dormancy and the presence of Late Maturity α-Amylase (LMA), and we validated it by analysing the phenotypes of 28 genetically diverse wheat landraces and exploring the potential variability existing in the responses to hot spells.

Noah's Ark conservation will not preserve threatened ecological communities under climate change.

Background: Effective conservation of threatened ecological communities requires knowledge of where climatically suitable habitat is likely to persist into the future. We use the critically endangered Lowland Grassland community of Tasmania, Australia as a case study to identify options for management in cases where future climatic conditions become unsuitable for the current threatened community.

Methods: We model current and future climatic suitability for the Lowland Themeda and the Lowland Poa Grassland communities, which make up the listed ecological community.

A tool for simulating and communicating uncertainty when modelling species distributions under future climates.

Tools for exploring and communicating the impact of uncertainty on spatial prediction are urgently needed, particularly when projecting species distributions to future conditions.We provide a tool for simulating uncertainty, focusing on uncertainty due to data quality. We illustrate the use of the tool using a Tasmanian endemic species as a case study.

Improving the use of species distribution models in conservation planning and management under climate change.

Choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios all influence the results of species distribution models under future climatic conditions. However, an overview of applied studies suggests that the uncertainty associated with these factors is not always appropriately incorporated or even considered. We examine the effects of choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly), and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine).