Patterns of crop cover under future climates.

We study changes in crop cover under future climate and socio-economic projections. This study is not only organised around the global and regional adaptation or vulnerability to climate change but also includes the influence of projected changes in socio-economic, technological and biophysical drivers, especially regional gross domestic product. The climatic data are obtained from simulations of RCP4.

Noah's Ark conservation will not preserve threatened ecological communities under climate change.

Background: Effective conservation of threatened ecological communities requires knowledge of where climatically suitable habitat is likely to persist into the future. We use the critically endangered Lowland Grassland community of Tasmania, Australia as a case study to identify options for management in cases where future climatic conditions become unsuitable for the current threatened community.

Methods: We model current and future climatic suitability for the Lowland Themeda and the Lowland Poa Grassland communities, which make up the listed ecological community.

A tool for simulating and communicating uncertainty when modelling species distributions under future climates.

Tools for exploring and communicating the impact of uncertainty on spatial prediction are urgently needed, particularly when projecting species distributions to future conditions.We provide a tool for simulating uncertainty, focusing on uncertainty due to data quality. We illustrate the use of the tool using a Tasmanian endemic species as a case study.

Improving the use of species distribution models in conservation planning and management under climate change.

Choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios all influence the results of species distribution models under future climatic conditions. However, an overview of applied studies suggests that the uncertainty associated with these factors is not always appropriately incorporated or even considered. We examine the effects of choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly), and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine).